• Current read is 42 on the fear greed index vs 40 last week.

• I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.

• I disagree with the 42 reading and put this closer to 60 (So in the neutral category.)

• We are within a few percent of ATHs… We can't be extreme fear and be that close to the highs… Doesn’t make sense.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.35% Today, vs 6.12% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbed to 4.17% Today, vs 4.13% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield fell to 3.51% Today, vs 3.55% last Sunday.

• Bonds were volatile this week as the market is trying to price in future rate curs & what to expect from the new fed in May.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

• Hope everyone had a great week!

• This past week in the stock market gave us a lot of important signals, especially on the economic side.

• We got new job openings data that continues to point toward a labor market that is starting to soften.

• Openings are coming down, hiring is slowing, and liquidity in the labor market is thinner than most people realize.

• That is a key reason why Jerome Powell cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

• The Fed is clearly more concerned about the labor market than inflation at this stage.

• J Powell has been pretty direct about this.

• The issue is not just layoffs.

• The bigger risk is what happens after layoffs.

• If we see a spike in people losing jobs, those workers may have a much harder time finding new ones compared to prior cycles.

• When job openings are low, the labor market becomes sticky on the downside, and that is when economic slowdowns accelerate.

• Longer term, AI only adds to this pressure.

• If efficiency continues to improve and companies are able to do more work with fewer people (this is highly likely), that puts even more strain on employment.

• This is not an overnight problem, but it is a structural one that the Fed is clearly watching.

• On the inflation side, expectations are that inflation peaks in Q1 of 2026.

• If that plays out, interest rates should continue to trend lower into that period.

• On top of that, Trump is expected to appoint a new Fed chair around May or June of 2026.

• Odds are high that this will be someone more willing to cut rates aggressively.

• As I always say, rates are gravity on stocks!

• If rates fall, that kinda acts like jet fuel for stocks.

• We also saw a good amount of volatility in the stock market this week, especially across AI related names.

• A lot of this comes down to debt concerns in the data center space and stocks simply getting ahead of themselves.

• Broadcom is a good example. The stock sold off after earnings not because the business is broken, but because expectations were priced to perfection.

• There was too much hype built into the stock, and it needed to come back down to earth after a massive run. (valuations matter)

• Zooming out, I still think the overall market is roughly 15 percent overvalued.

• That does not mean you sell everything or sit in cash.

• It just means you need to be selective and disciplined.

• There are still deals out there, but this is not a market where you spray short term trades and hope for the best.

• This is why I continue to favor longer duration strategies.

• Portfolio secured sold puts, LEAP call options, and owning shares in businesses you actually want to hold long term.

• Short duration plays right now are extremely risky.

• No one knows what the market is going to do week to week.

• My approach does not change.

• We use short term volatility as an opportunity to capitalize.

• When the market gives us “fear driven pullbacks”, we use them to add to long term positions at better prices.

• Be patient. Opportunity is coming!

• Always be positioned to win in upside and downside!

• Don’t just be a 1 trick pony that only does well in bull markets, cause everyone can make money in the bulls.

• You gotta be able to not only survive the bears, but you want to capitalize & sleep well at night.

• That mindset is how you survive overvalued markets and still come out ahead.

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth & health for you & your family!

See you in next weeks newsletter!

-Brandon

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