Alpha Report Issue #96

• Current read is 64 on the fear greed index vs 61 last week.

• I think this should be closer to 70, so still greedy IMO.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• So right now, I am being VERY careful!

• Opportunity will come. BE PATIENT!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate flat at 6.46% Today, vs 6.46% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.23% Today, vs 4.25% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.62% Today, vs 3.69% last Sunday.

• Interest rates came down a little this week.

• Inflation data came in at expectations so nothing big enough to move the needle here.

• Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend!
Let’s break down what’s going on right now!

• I usually break down what’s happening with specific areas of the market, but in this report, I want to zoom out and keep things high level.

• Honestly, there wasn’t much “earth shattering” news or data this week anyway so it’s the perfect time to step back.

• Let’s dive in.

• I know emails like this often get skimmed or deleted halfway through, but stick with me, it’ll only take three minutes of your day, and I think it could shift the way you see investing.

• Here’s the point I want to hammer home: investing is emotional, and understanding human flaws is critical to long term success.

• Lately, the market has been ripping higher.

• Portfolios are sitting at all time highs, and everyone feels good.

• I get it.

• But here’s the truth… the same people cheering ATHs now are usually the ones panicking when the market dips.

• April was a perfect example with the tariff headlines.

• If you feel euphoric when stocks rise, that same emotion will eventually cost you.

• If you get nervous and fearful when they fall, that will cost you too.

• The market is not rational in the short term, it’s just a collection of investors and speculators trying to guess what a stock “should” be worth.

• A move up or down doesn’t automatically mean it’s a rational one.

• So my point is this:

• The less emotional you can be with your money, the better your results will likely be.

• I’ll be honest, over 1,000 people have taken my investing course, and even after learning the system, some still lose money from time to time.

• Why? Because you can’t simply teach someone how to feel.

• Every time someone told me they lost money, I asked: “Did it pass the checklist from the course?” 

• Almost every time, the answer was no.

• So why do we make decisions we know are bad?

• Because many want action, excitement, and the thrill of a 3x your money on a call option.

• But here’s the hard truth, those chasing that excitement are usually the same people who never retire early.

• They’re the ones who end up in Vegas, trying to “beat” a slot machine.

• So my question to you is this, what one are you going to be?

• The rational investor?

• or the irrational one reacting to every single headline?

Quick Market Valuation Recap:

• Market is a little pricy now.

• Rate cuts help support the valuation.

• Be careful with leverage even more now cause of downside risks.

• This does NOT mean a dip MUST happen, but the risks are building the more expensive the market gets.

• I am allocating my portfolios appropriately to capitalize on upside, downside, and generate cash flow while things are a little lofty.

Key mindset: Market will hit new all time highs again over time, but you’ve got to be mentally and financially prepared for the dips. Buy great companies at good prices. Keep your ratios in check. Don’t YOLO into hype. Be patient!

I’ll send this out a few more times than it should be filled up🤝

I have a few spots left to become a client at my financial advisory firm.
(currently booking about 8 weeks out)

• Investing.

• Asset Management.

• Insurance (life, disability, etc)

• Estate Planning.

• Taxes Strategy.

• Private Equity.

• Private Credit.

• Plus some super interesting things that really could made sense given current state of the market.

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