Alpha Report Issue #91

• Current read is 74 on the fear greed index vs 75 last week.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• Remember, I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear & bearish when extreme greed.

• So right now, I am being VERY careful!

• Opportunity will come. BE PATIENT!

  

  Current Fear/Greed Index

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate stays the same at 6.84% Today, vs 6.84% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.39% Today, vs 4.42% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 3.92% Today, vs 3.87% last Sunday.

• Interest rates were flat ish this week, so not really a needle mover either way.

• As interest rates/bond yields INCREASE, stocks become LESS attractive because bonds become MORE attractive.

• This also works in reverse!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bonds become LESS attractive.

• REMEMBER, MONEY ALWAYS WANTS TO FIND THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURN.

Let’s keep this simple and break down what actually matters right now for the stock market and to make some money!

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend!

Let’s cover what matters!

• We have a HUGE week coming up with economic data and earnings from many big companies.

• So far, earnings have bee pretty good!

• Solid growth & solid guide… The show goes on!

• Trump is touting a trade deal with the EU which is good!

• Also, Trump and J Pow (fed) met last week and it was a very interesting encounter lol… Just YouTube the video. It will make you laugh.

• Trump claims J pow is going to cut rates a lot, but time will tell!

• This market is a little expensive and rate cuts are needed IMO to justify the lofty valuation.

• We are not a bubble, but we are a little expensive.

• This is a time to be careful with options and leverage!

• So this week we have earnings from lots of big dogs such as Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, Robinhood, and Visa.

• I will be looking for clues into the state of the economy, the consumer, the labor market, and of course their numbers.

• I also wanna see how their cap ex is for Ai related expenses.

• I have exposure to TSM, NVDA, AMD, ect…

• So these companies give clues as to how they plan to spend money for Ai data center buildouts for example.

• It’s never enough to just read what AMD has to say and think you are an informed investor.

• You need to see what AMD says, then NVDA, then TSM who builds the chips, then the hyperscallers that are buying the chips.

• You need the full picture.

• This is why breaking down all of the related companies is critical!

• The number one thing that does matters to move the price of a stock in the long run is what the EPS does.

• Stocks usually follow that on a long term basis.

• Short term is of course volatile (under 3 years)

• So EPS numbers matter, but what the guide is even more important.

• Cause remember, EPS reported is in the past.

• We of course care about that, but what is expected to come in the future is even more important.

• This is the guidence.

• So I will be breaking down all of these companies in Discord. (link below to come in for free)

• We also have Jerome Powell (fed) talking about the feds decision on interest rates.

• It’s pretty much priced in to stay flat, but we will see.

• He guided at his last meeting that June and July inflation numbers were expected to be a little hot cause of the tariff price hikes.

• He said if we get through June and July inflation numbers with not a huge bump in inflation, ht will feel confident to cut.

• So far it’s going ok.

• We will see what he says this week with regards to that!

• There is also lotssss of talk about United Health all over X, I do have a position on it, and they do report earnings on Tuesday.

• I will be breaking down in Discord my entire thesis on this company and how we could potentially benefit!

• We are all here to make money, so I hope this short newsletter helped you out a little!

To Summarize🤝

• The market is a little expensive now fundamentally.

• If earnings hold up and interest rates trend down, we will most likely be ok.

• If something cracks, whether that be inflation to the upside, earnings to the downside, labor market, economy, ect… Expect downside correction.

• I have said it a million time but I will do it again.

• I am prepared to capitalize on upside and downside.

• My portfolio is 100% long/bullish the market.

• But when it comes to leveraged options exposure, I have that low ish now.

• ALWAYS KEEP YOUR RATIOS IN CHECK

• ESPECIALLY IN THE LOFTY ENVIRONMENT WE ARE IN NOW.

I bet you lose money with Stocks & Options or you have in the past...

Most ppl do...
The most ironic part...
This is such a simple game to win at.
It's not rocket science.

But you need a system that is proven to work.

For the next few days, you can learn my entire investing system for FREE.
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Yes, I realize courses & discord communities are a dime a dozen... I get that.

But how many of these "experts" actually made millions from their system and others did too?
Not many...

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All of this will be broken down in real time in Discord!
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