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- Alpha Report Issue #88
Alpha Report Issue #88
The Current State of The Market


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Fear & Greed Index👇
Current read is 78 on the fear greed index vs 65 last week.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (buy calls/sell puts)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (buy puts/sell calls)
So the market is now in the extreme greed category after a massive bounce off of the April lows and slowly melting higher.
Remember, I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear & bearish when extreme greed.
So right now, I am being VERY careful!
Opportunity will come. BE PATIENT!

Current Fear/Greed index.

Historical Fear Greed Index In Chart Form.
Current Interest Rates👇
30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.72% Today vs 6.61% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.34% Today, vs 4.27% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.88% Today, vs 3.74% last Sunday.
Interest rates increased this week, which is based on ish for the stock market.
As interest rates/bond yields INCREASE, stocks become LESS attractive because bonds become MORE attractive.
REMEMBER, MONEY ALWAYS WANTS TO FIND THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURN.
Overall, the increase in yields/rates was only a little and is not a huge needle mover for the overall market valuation… Which I think it’s a little expensive.

CURRENT THOUGHTS:
Let’s keep this simple and break down what actually matters right now for the stock market and to make some money!
What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend.
Just wanted to pop in and share a few thoughts on what I’m seeing in this market right now.
We’ve seen a strong rebound off the April lows.
That initial bounce came from tariff pauses and a couple trade deals getting done.
But the continuation of the rally?
That’s mostly tied to J. Powell likely being replaced in the next year—maybe even sooner.
Trump has been clear: he wants someone in the Fed who will cut rates.
He’s said he’s aiming for 1–2% rates…
If that actually happens, the market could rip higher.
But remember—markets are forward-looking.
That potential is already getting priced in a little, but not fully.
Once it feels more real, it’ll likely keep pushing the market higher.
That’s what’s fueling this rally right now.
Yes, I think stocks are about 15% overvalued here.
But rate cuts could flip that and even bring valuations back down to fair or below.
Still… I don’t invest based on hope.
I’ve got a plan either way.
Also, Trump made some noise recently about tariffs.
He said certain countries are going to get hit hard, and that letters will go out telling them what their new import tariffs into the U.S. will be.
That could cause a dip on Monday (tomorrow)
But he also said he is extending 90 day pauses until August 1st… So time will tell!
But, like we’ve seen before, Trump tends to flip flop… so we’ll see.
Q2 earnings also kick off in about a week.
So yeah, there’s a ton of potential catalysts… good and bad right around the corner.
As for me, I’m really happy with how i’m positioned.
I trim risk in expensive markets & I add risk in cheap markets.
Now it’s a little expensive.
Big picture: I’m very bullish long-term (3+ years), but short-term, I’m cautiously optimistic.
We’ve been on a run, and some of this price action feels a bit euphoric.
Not saying we have to dip… but you know me, I’ll be ready either way.
Just remember:
Market up? We win.
Market down? We win.
The key is positioning yourself to capitalize.
No need to be over leveraged right now when prices are a little rich.
I’d rather see Q2 earnings roll in, wait out the tariff pause, and get more clarity before leaning in further.
Stay patient.
Opportunities are coming.
I’m grateful for every one of you in here
We’re all going to keep growing and scaling together.
Rome wasn’t built in a day…
But it was built.
Onward and upward. 🤝
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR: JULY 7 - JULY 11, 2025
All times in PST
Monday JULY 7👇
Market processes tariffs, Big beautiful bill, trade deal potentials, & potential of new fed.
Tuesday JULY 8👇
Nothing major
Wednesday JULY 9👇
11a Fed Minutes
Thursday JULY 10👇
5:30a Initial jobless claims
Delta airlines earnings (pre market)
Friday JULY 11👇
Nothing major
Slow week in the market, but Q2 earnings start in 1 week and that is MAJOR!
I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Discord!
BUY LOW, SELL HIGH IS EASY TO SAY
Hard to do for most people...
Because “low” feels like the world is ending.
And “high” feels like it’ll never stop going up.
You need to be able to control your emotions in good times and bad times...
Otherwise, you'll get smoked like most.
— Investing With Brandon (@Invest_Brandon)
5:14 PM • Jul 6, 2025
