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- Alpha Report Issue #84
Alpha Report Issue #84
The Current State of The Market
Brandon
June 08, 2025
Hey guys!
I’ll be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every Sunday!
I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better!
Enjoy!
-Brandon
Fear & Greed Index👇
Current read is 63 on the fear greed index vs 62 last week.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (buy calls/sell puts)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (buy puts/sell calls)
So the market is now in the greedy category after a massive bounce off of the April lows.
Remember, I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear & bearish when extreme greed.
So right now, I am kinda neutral & that is ok!
Opportunity will come. BE PATIENT!
Current Fear/Greed index.
Historical Fear Greed Index In Chart Form.
Current Interest Rates👇
30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.98% Today vs 6.97% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.50% Today, vs 4.42% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield falls at 4.03% Today, vs 3.91% last Sunday.
Interest rates climbed a little this week, which is bad for the stock market.
As interest rates climb, stocks become LESS attractive because bonds become MORE attractive.
REMEMBER, MONEY ALWAYS WANTS TO FIND THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURN.
Bonds yields increased and are becoming more attractive…
Overall, this does not help to justify the lofty market valuations right now.
WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS NOW👇
I am going to keep today’s newsletter VERY simple with bullet points of my thoughts.
Hope everyone had a great weekend!
We have a decent week coming up.
Key things will be how trade talks go with china and if we get a "day 2"
Day 2 would indicate things are going decently.
If we do not get a day 2, its prob bad.
Beyond that, CPI is BIGGGG.
The expectation for headline CPI is 2.5% YoY.
I will not give a prediction for how I see this number coming in, but I will say this.
I expect inflation to trend down in a bumpy way as the months & quarters go by.
Key word is bumpy!
So as we trend down, rates will most likely get cut, at that's great for the stock market.
If the data come in HOT meaning over 2.5%, expect rates to stay higher for longer and stocks to fall.
But the silver lining in that is the economy is probably strong.
99% of the time inflation in the economy is because there is demand to buy goods which means the consumer is strong and economy is strong.
So yes, if it's hot I will take that as strong economy most likely.
If it comes in soft, that is what most ppl wanna see.
This indicates inflation is falling and gives the fed the green light to cut and this will also get rid of stagflation fears.
But I can also say low inflation could mean the economy is potentially weak because there is not enough demand to push up the price level.
So I wanna see somewhere between 2.3% to 2.4%.
I think thats the sweet spot.
Anything more or less will probably result in a good amount of market volatility.
As for my current positioning, I like where I am at.
I did a good amount of de risking and I think it is justified.
Yes I am bullish, but short term things are a little stretched.
Maybe this is the top.
Or maybe it wont happen for years.
Nobody on earth knows.
Anyone that makes a prediction and is correct will be viewed as a genius... But in reality they just got lucky.
Historically speaking, when you are in the game for decades, right now will be viewed as a historically high valuation period and history says this is not a time to have lots of leverage.
Yes I have some... but not too much.
So I will win either way.
Market goes up I win.
Market goes down I win.
I either get capital appreciation or buying at a discount with the 7 figure buying power I have on the sidelines ready to rip.
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR: JUNE 9 - JUNE 13, 2025
All times in PST
Monday JUNE 9👇
USA China Trade talks
Tuesday JUNE 10👇
China trade talks day 2?
Wednesday JUNE 11👇
5:30a CPI inflation data
Oracle Earnings (post market)
5p Discord Zoom Call
Thursday JUNE 12👇
5:30a Initial jobless claims
5:30a PPI data
Adobe earnings (post market)
Friday JUNE 13👇
7a consumer sentiment
I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Discord!
If I won 5 million bucks tomorrow, I would immediately do this:
$2m in $VOO
$2m in $QQQ
$1m in single stocks.- Sell puts with strikes 10% below the current prices assuming the stock is near intrinsic value.
-1 year durations.
-Reinvest the put premiums back into more— Investing With Brandon (@Invest_Brandon)
2:11 PM • Jun 7, 2025
👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025
(updated every newsletter)
To see all my trades + much more, enroll below!
👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030
(of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)