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- Alpha Report Issue #79
Alpha Report Issue #79
Current State of The Stock Market...


Hey guys!
I’ll be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every Sunday!
I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better!
Enjoy!
-Brandon

Fear & Greed Index👇
Current read is 43 on the fear greed index vs 35 last week.
I feel that we are actually closer to 50 vs what this says, so neutral
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals.
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation.
So the market is roughly in balance right now from a fear greed standpoint in my opinion.
Remember, I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear & bearish when extreme greed.
So right now, I am neutral & that is ok!
Opportunity will come.

Current Interest Rates👇
30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.86% Today vs 6.71% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.30% Today, vs 4.25% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 3.82% Today, vs 3.75% last Sunday.
Interest rates increased this week, which is kinda bad for the stock market usually….
As interest rates rise, stocks become less attractive because bonds become more attractive.
This is known as the equity risk premium which is essentially the spread on expected returns in the stock market vs the 10 year bond yield.
REMEMBER, MONEY ALWAYS WANTS TO FIND THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURN.
Overall, this is not good for stocks & the economy, but I do expect rates to fall in the coming quarters as inflation continues to cool.

The State of The Stock Market Right Now👇
Well, the bottom for the market of 2025 might be in… KEYWORD, “MIGHT”
The Nasdaq fell about 23% from ATH to the bottom & has now recovered about 17% from the bottom.
So is the bottom in & what else do we gotta think about with this market to make money… LET’S BREAK IT DOWN IN A NO BS NO FLUFF WAY.
The Tariff Threat👇
Think about the tariff tone on Trump and his team on liberation day vs today…
They came in very strong initially with a tough stance.
Now though? We have a 90 day pause, are apparently very close to major deals with big countries, and we are now in some form of talks with China.
Yes, remember how everyone was saying the US and China will never work together again?
Well they just cut tariffs on a bunch of things the US imports there which is a nice de escalation.
I do expect the US to cut tariffs on Chinese imports too.
Trump probably realized he came in too strong on tariffs and the economy could have potentially been in big trouble, so now he’s taking a softer stance and the market is happy about that.
Translation:
I am in the camp we will either get trade deals done or just simply de-escalation of tariffs in the coming months. Both will be bullish for the global economies and the stock market should be happy about this.
✅Stamping this section: BULLISH for stocks right now.
Earnings Season👇
Calendar Year 2025 Q1 Earnings are here in full force.
This week we have some heavy hitters like Palantir, Hims, SMCI, Celsius, Arista, AMD, Uber, Disney, ARM, & Coinbase.
Yes, this is BIG!
I need to see decent EPS numbers for the reported quarter, but the whale in the room is how they guide for next quarter and the rest of 2025.
This week honestly is a diverse group of companies and it’s not all big tech.
Some of the companies I list here is because they are the “hot” stocks and I like to see how the typical emotional investor does as they buy at insane valuations.
I think the needle movers for the market as a whole are going to be SMCI & AMD.
This will have BIG implications for companies like Nvidia & Broadcom because we will see how AI demand really is even after all of the negative headlines that we have been reading about.
If AMD/SMCI miss and guide lower, expect Nvidia & Broadcom to tank.
Translation: Earnings are big, guidance is big, growth matters, outlooks matter, AI spending matters, lots of stuff matters! Investors will be looking for clues on the state of the companies and the economy. The earnings calls are critical to listen to, especially the end where analysts ask the CEOs the tough questions.
✅Stamping this section: NEUTRAL for stocks right now.
Volatility, Emotions, & Capitalization👇
When I started out investing, I hated volatility.
I just couldn’t stand to see the red in my portfolio and “lose” money…
But the more you know, the more comfortable you get in times like this.
Most people see volatility as risk, which I did starting out…
But now I see it as opportunity.
Opportunity to get investing in companies that are below intrinsic value while everyone is panicking out there.
Opportunity to sell put options while the premiums are still super high because the typical emotional investor wants to buy downside protection in their portfolios.
So they are buying puts when things are cheaper, I am the one selling them that put option and collecting the cash flow.
As old man Warren Buffett always says, be greedy when others are fearful.
When stocks fall to cheap valuation levels, I am a buyer.
If the set up is compelling enough, I will use options to magnify the move I am trying to capture.
If you can’t stand 20% swings in your portfolio, you shouldn’t be invested in the market at all…
Leave your emotions at the door, or you will get smoked…
Confidence comes from knowledge.
Never stop learning as an investor.
Translation:
Every market dip feels like the end of the world. As the typical investor panics on the dip to sell, informed investors like the ones that did the InvestingWithBrandon Stocks & Options Course are capitalizing! Keep Emotions in check!
✅ Stamping this section: BULLISH for the stock market.
Market Valuation Is Not What You Think👇
Is the market cheap right now?
Well, it depends…
The forward PE ratio for the S&P500 is about 20 right now.
That is historically high.
The reason why the valuation of the S&P matters so much is because everything is packaged into an ETF (index) nowadays.
So if the SP500 falls, almost everything will get dragged down with it.
So if you are trying to capture a bullish move when the market is expensive, it’s kinda like swimming upstream in a river…
But is the market really super over valued right now?
NO.
Not at all.
It’s just a little expensive, maybe 10% ish in my opinion.
This is key to understand because it honestly matters a lot.
I know I talk a lot about the S&P500, but that’s cause it’s the whale in the room.
There is opportunity in a bunch of individual companies which I cover all of this in my course members only discord, but you gotta manage risk appropriately.
Translation: The market got expensive starting in the end of 2023 and got worse as 2024 progressed. This dip we got is 100% justified and was needed. Keep your pants on and don’t freak out. I know there is so many people online giving compelling reasons why the USA is doomed, but when you tell them to short the S&P500 on a 5 year basis, none will do it. THEY KNOW BETTER THAN TO BET AGAINST AMERICA.
✅ Stamping this section: NEUTRAL for stocks.
Why This Dip Is Opportunity👇
I believe the tidal wave is coming for the tech and AI revolution.
I am not some fan boy.
I don’t care about talking about the "popular thing”
I care about making money & I’m sure you do too.
Self-driving cars
Fully automated warehouses
Entire company workflows powered by AI
Fully autonomous humanoid robots
This is what I see coming
Productivity is going to explode at most businesses if they adopt.
And when company productivity rises? EPS rises.
And when EPS rises? Stock prices follow.
There will be big winners and big losers.
But investors who embrace this shift now are setting themselves up for serious upside.
Yes, AI will cause some job displacement.
Yes, that’s bad for workers.
But higher margins and stronger profits are rocket fuel for stocks.
Translation: I think we are on the cusp of a once in a lifetime investing opportunity. I am talking one that is like getting in to the internet before it went mainstream. I am not BSing you right now. I see the tidal wave coming, and I am capitalizing. Guess who else is, the people just like you that did my Stocks & Options Course and are in the private course members only discord. We are strategizing and laying the ground work to win in this environment. The time is NOW.
✅ Stamping this section: BULLISH for stocks.
Don’t Be Like The Herd👇
When the market goes straight up, everyone is a genius.
Now that we dipped, everyone is big on risk management, bonds, CDs, gold, ect…
It’s so funny cause I have seen this time and time again…
People just don’t learn.
They buy into the hype, get smoked, then sell for a loss.
The exact opposite of what should be done.
Now that things are rebounding a little, they are starting to get FOMO again.
Just look at Palantir stock…
As things get expensive, I sell.
As things get cheap, I buy and use options to get a leveraged upside return all while keeping risk low.
This is exactly how I scaled to millions and the people that did my course are too.
The stock market is the only place on earth where people don’t want to buy when things go on sale… they actually wanna sell.
Understand intrinsic value.
Don't chase hype.
Don’t act on emotion.
Stay focused and zoom out.
Learn How To Capitalize👇
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Tried stocks or options but lost money?
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The truth?
Markets like this are where real wealth is built — not when everything feels “safe.”
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ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR: MAY 5 - MAY 9, 2025
All times in PST
Monday May 5👇
6:45a PMI Data
7a ISM Data
Palantir Earnings (post market)
HIMS Earnings (post market)
Tuesday May 6👇
5:30a Trade Deficit Data
Celcius Earnings (pre market)
AMD Earnings (post market)
SMCI Earnings (post market)
Arista Networks Earnings (post market)
Wednesday May 7👇
Uber Earnings (pre market)
Disney Earnings (pre market)
Arm Earnings (post market)
11a Fed Interest Rate Meeting
11:30a Jerome Powell Press Conference
Thursday May 8👇
530a Initial Jobless Claims
Coinbase Earnings (post market)
Friday May 9👇
Various fed governors speak
I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Course members only discord!
THIS WILL COST MANY PEOPLE MILLIONS:
$VOO is about $520/share right now.
If I assume a 10% annual return for 25 years, the non split adjusted price per share of VOO would be over $6,000
Yes, I realize it will split.
But before you go pop in your limit order cause you think
— Investing With Brandon (@Invest_Brandon)
1:06 PM • May 2, 2025


👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025
(updated every newsletter)
To see all my trades + much more, become a course member & join course members only Discord

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

(of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)