Alpha Report Issue #77

IT'S BAD... Current State of The Stock Market.

Hey guys!

I’ll be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every Sunday!

I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better!

Enjoy!

-Brandon

Show Me The Money GIF

Fear & Greed Index👇

  • Current read is 21 on the fear greed index vs 13 last week.

  • I feel that we are actually closer to 40 vs what this says, so slightly fearful.

  • Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals.

  • Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation.

  • Yes, I say 40 because the market is NOT as bad as what people think.

  • This chart blows it a little out of proportion in my opinion.

Current Interest Rates👇

  • 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.86% Today vs 7.11% last Sunday.

  • 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.33% Today, vs 4.49% last Sunday.

  • 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.80% Today, vs 3.97% last Sunday.

  • Interest rates fell this week which is good for the stock market usually.

  • As interest rates fall, stocks become more attractive because bonds become less attractive.

  • This is known as the equity risk premium which is essentially the spread on expected returns in the stock market vs the 10 year bond yield.

  • REMEMBER, MONEY ALWAYS WANTS TO FIND THE BEST RISK ADJUSTED RETURN.

  • Overall, this is good for stocks & the economy.

The State of The Stock Market Right Now👇

The market’s been wild—and it’s about to get even wilder. I’m breaking down what’s actually happening right now and, more importantly, how to capitalize on it. No BS. No hype. Just how to make money in the chaos. Let’s go.

The Tariff Threat👇

  • We’re staring down the barrel of the highest tariffs in American history.

  • If they stay in current form, this will be BAD for the economy and stocks.

  • Trump recently did a 90 day pause on everyone except China.

  • I am optimistic we will eventually make deals with most countries, but the jury is still out.

  • In the meantime, the economy’s strength is going to be tested.

  • That means stagflation becomes a real risk: slow growth and rising prices.

  • Tariffs are slowing the economy & causing prices to go up. (companies are passing the tariffs on to the consumers)

  • CPI Inflation is sitting at 2.4% which is very close to the feds 2% target, but that number can spike fast if tariffs stay in the current form.

  • That puts the Fed in a tight spot.

  • Raise rates to fight inflation and risk a recession, or cut too soon and let inflation run hot.

  • Neither option is good.

  • Jerome Powell at the fed did hint that he will let inflation run hot because it will be a “1 time bump” and he will focus on keeping the labor market strong.

  • To simplify, rate cuts will come if the economy slows.

  • This gives investors confidence in the market and the loss of 2025 may be in.

  • I will stamp this section as NEUTRAL for the stock market.

History Says To Buy👇

  • When has the S&P500 ever not returned back to ATHs?

  • We have been through world wars, pandemics, financial black swans, and many other “end of the world” scenarios.

  • So many “experts” and “analysts” in the midst of all those negative events were calling for the market to never recover and this to be the end…

  • ALL WERE WRONG.

  • After all of the doomsday scenarios, the market bounced back every single time.

  • I don’t see this time as different.

  • Right now, the VIX (volatility index) is elevated, fear is high, sentiment is low and peak bearishness in priced in.

  • That’s historically one of the best times in history to buy.

  • As Warren Buffett says, “Be greedy when others are fearful & be fearful when others are greedy”

  • Now is a time of extreme fear in the market.

  • Do not think like the herd and panic because to be honest, 99% of the herd loses money investing and never scales to millions…

  • Think like a real investor would.

  • That’s what i’m doing.

  • I will stamp this section as BULLISH for the stock market.

Market Valuation Is Not What You Think👇

  • Everyone’s screaming "the market is cheap” but its not…

  • Yes, even after a 20% dip, I still don’t claim things are cheap.

  • I claim they are at intrinsic value.

Stocks typically follow the earnings. You can see at the end of 2024, stocks were much higher than EPS. We now corrected lower and are close to intrinsic value. GOOD!

  • That means you are paying fair value. Not more. Not less… Just MSRP.

  • The S&P500’s PE ratio is sitting right around historical averages.

  • Before the dip, things were lofty.

  • So this dip was 100% justified regardless of the negative catalyst.

  • BUT!

  • If inflation cools (which I think it will continue to do), interest rates should come down, that’s bullish for stocks and justifies things to rebound.

  • If earnings continue to grow at a solid pace, stocks are set to continue higher also.

  • But if any of those factors pan out towards the bearish side, we could see more downside.

  • Stocks bounce above and below their intrinsic value based on sentiment.

  • In 2024, stocks traded above intrinsic value.

  • Maybe in 2025 we trade below intrinsic value.

  • This could indicate more downside potential.

  • I think the most likely downside risk is the trade war persists and it hurts economic growth.

  • Time will tell!

  • I will stamp this section as NEUTRAL for the stock market.

Why This Dip Is A Gift👇

  • This could be your last chance to get in before AI takes off for real.

  • There is a lot of speculation still around real world AI, but I believe that is going to come to an end soon.

  • We’re talking self driving cars, warehouse robots, fully automated workflows.

  • Company productivity will explode, and that boosts EPS.

  • Stocks follow EPS.

  • So yea, there will be some major winners and some major losers.

  • You either embrace AI, or you will most likely get left behind.

  • AI has a sliver lining though.

  • If productivity continues to improve (which I think it will) that means the unemployment might rise as tech replaces people—but investors win when companies do more with less.

  • I will stamp this section as BULLISH for the stock market.

How To Manage Risk & Still Capitalize👇

  • I know this sounds backwards, but there’s MORE risk in a raging bull market and LESS risk in a bear market.

  • This is because in raging bull markets, people get emotional and FOMO and just keep bidding up stock prices way beyond the fundamentals.

  • Now for bear markets (which we are in one now) people get emotional, but in a bad way. They panic sell stocks when they are cheap, which is the exact opposite of what should be done.

  • It’s blows my mind how the stock market is the only place on earth where when things fall in price and become cheaper, there is no buyers to be found… but when things are going straight up in price, people can’t get enough.

  • Please don’t be like that.

  • The solution?

  • Understand how to value a company and make plays relative to the distance the company is trading above and below intrinsic value.

  • Don’t chase hype.

  • Don’t act on emotion.

  • Do your own research.

  • Filter out the noise.

  • Most of what you read online is trash.

Learn How To Capitalize👇

  • I know you are probably sick of hearing about my course, but I promise you this… Right now is hands down one of the best times to get started investing and learn a strategy that actually works.

  • The biggest regret you’ll have is not educating yourself on how to invest with stocks and options the right way to capitalize.

  • Do my course & come into my FREE Discord.

  • It will change your life!

  • $97 out the door as a 1 time charge to learn everything you need to know!

  • It’s about 10 hours in duration of me teaching you exactly how the market works & how to use options the right way in a low risk way!

  • The $97 sale ends in 2 days.

  • After that it’s going up A LOT!

  • The true value of this course is about $1,000 according to the hundreds of students that completed it.

  • I do a survey at the end and ask what you feel the value was.

  • Why so cheap now?

  • Cause I wanna help as many people as possible change their lives for the better in this massive opportunity right now!

Right now I have a MASSIVE 50% off coupon! Click the button below to get in!

Economic Calendar For: April 21 - April 25, 2025 

All times in PST

Monday April 21👇

Effects of new tariff developments

Tuesday April 22👇

Tesla Earnings (post market)

Wednesday April 23👇

6:45a PMI Data
11a Fed Beige Book
Chipotle Earnings (post market)

Thursday April 24👇

530a Initial Jobless Claims
5:30a Durable Goods Orders
American Airlines Earnings (pre market)
Union Pacific Railroad Earnings (pre market)
Google Earnings (post market)
Intel Earnings (post market)

Friday April 25👇

HCA Earnings (pre market)
7a Consumer Sentiment

I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Course members only discord!

(yes there is more companies reporting earnings, but I cut out the ones that a re not needle movers and focus on what actually matters)

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

I moved all trades and potential plays to ACADEMY members ONLY Discord!

Take your game to the next level. Do My Course & come into my course members only mastermind Discord!

  • QQQ - $510

  • VOO- $550

  • IWM- $205

  • SOXX- $190

  • TSLA - $310

  • NVDA- $150

  • AAPL - $240

  • PLTR- $75

  • AMZN- $220

  • GOOG - $180

  • MSFT - $425

  • JPM - $260

  • SOFI - $10

  • TSM  - $200

  • AMD - $105

  • META - $650

  • MU - $95

  • BITCOIN - $90,000

  • SOLANA - $200

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

  • QQQ- $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • VOO- $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • SOXX- $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • TSLA- $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

  • NVDA- $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

  • AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • AMZN- $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • NVDA - $1,250 (assuming 45% annual ROI)

    (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX ADVISOR, OR INSURANCE ADVISOR. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, COURSES, OR OTHER CONTENT CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL, INSURANCE, OR OTHER ADVICE, NOR SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, OR OTHER CONTENT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING AN INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER OBTAINING RELEVANT AND SPECIFIC PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. IF YOU NEED SUCH ADVICE, PLEASE CONTACT A QUALIFIED CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX PROFESSIONAL,  INSURANCE AGENT, OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CAN LOSE MONEY INVESTING AND TRADING. LINKED ITEMS MAY CREATE A FINANCIAL BENEFIT FOR INVESTINGWITHBRANDON.