Alpha Report Issue #75

Current State of The Stock Market

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-Brandon

Leonardo Dicaprio Dancing GIF by Jordan Belfort

Fear & Greed Index👇

  • Current read is 4 on the fear greed index vs 22 last week.

  • I feel that we are actually closer to 40 vs what this says, so slightly fearful.

  • Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals.

  • Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation.

Current Interest Rates👇

  • 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.47% Today vs 6.71% last Sunday.

  • 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.00% Today, vs 4.25% last Sunday.

  • 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.64% Today, vs 3.91% last Sunday.

  • Interest rates fell this past week as investors buy bonds on recession fears.

  • More demand for bonds = higher bond prices, which means lower bond yields

  • Bond prices vs bond yields move inverse of each other.

  • This makes stocks more attractive.

The State of The Stock Market Right Now👇

We are officially in a bear market for the Nasdaq & most investors are freaking out. Tariffs, recession, trade war, inflation, earnings contractions, these are among the top fears of most investors. All of these things are legit concerns, but here is my thoughts and what I am doing about it!

My Overall Thoughts👇

  • It has been a tough few weeks in the market for sure.

  • I think the tariffs are much heavier than most people thought and the market dip is justified.

  • If, and key word is IF, If tariffs stay in place in the current form, I think this will be very bad for the global economy.

  • I am optimistic there will be negotiations and they will get reduced.

  • We are already hearing reports about India, Vietnam, Singapore, Taiwan and other various countries willing to drop their tariffs drastically.

  • This is GOOD!

  • The whale is China, and as of writing this, I haven’t heard anything about them with regards to a deal. But I think they will make a deal.

  • Market valuations are coming down and this is healthy and justified!

This is the chart I show often & you can see the SP500 index is getting closer to overlapping with the earnings growth line. In a perfect world, these 2 lines would move together in tandem. So things are coming back into balance now.

  • On the chart I shared above, I feel the forward EPS & SP500 chart are very close to overlaping.

  • This is because I feel the future earnings growth expectations are a little too bearish vs expectations.

  • So as the market falls & earnings go up, the lines get closer together.

  • That is good and healthy.

  • Now with tariffs & inflation, I see a lot of people talking about this on X and Youtube.

  • Many people feel tariffs are not inflationary, but I disagree strongly.

  • Cost of goods will go up, which puts Jerome Powell (fed) in a tough spot.

  • They can’t cut interest rates cause of inflation concerns, but can’t raise cause of economy.

  • In a perfect world, if we have high inflation, we would raise interest rates to slow down the economy and bring inflation down.

  • If it was the reverse and inflation was low, we would lower rates to bring inflation up.

  • The target range for annual inflation is 2%.

This chart shows inflation with regards to the 2% target.

  • Overall I anticipate if things go downhill, the fed will cut and let inflation run a little hot and call it "transitory" and cut to support the economy.

  • The market will eventually find equilibrium and this dip will end.

  • But nobody on earth knows when.

  • It literally all depends on if trade deals get made and how fast it gets done.

  • The whale is China and that needs to be delt with, which I think it will be.

  • The question is when…

  • I did start to deploy come capital on Thursday & Friday.

  • My assignment value for sold puts is around 45% now.

  • The more we fall, the more I add.

  • America has been through A LOT and this will be another bump in the road.

America has been through a lot. But when have we even not came out ok? NEVER

  • So right now, the market needs some reassurance that tariffs in the current form are not going to stick. The market wants to see deals get made.

  • Until we get clarity, expect volatility.

  • The last year or so, I have been seeing soooo many people on X, YouTube, IG, ect… talking about how much money they are making.

  • I am happy for them, but unfortunately most lost it all the last few months.

  • Everyone is a genius in a bull market.

  • Literally everyone…

  • Where are they now?

  • Well…Most got destroyed.

  • As for me, I'm here still deploying capital as we fall.

  • Am I down a little now? Yes of course.

  • But I also was during Covid & 2022 & used that to capitalize & ended up making millions.

  • Every market dip is hard.

  • They all seem like the end of the world.

  • But none have taken down America yet.

  • I don't think this will be next.

  • After 5 months of me claiming the market is lofty, I now claim the market is at intrinsic value.

  • Yes, I stood on that for 5 months.

  • Now I think we are there.

  • Can we go lower, oh yea babyyyy.

  • How much? Nobody knows.

  • I honestly don't see how this will end up being a 40% market crash which implies 18% more to go.

  • Nasdaq already did 22% peak to trough.

  • Now officially bear market.

  • But as I always say:

  • Zoom out.

  • Keep emotions in check.

  • Buy base.

  • Do high margin of safety options trades.

  • Keep ratios in check.

  • And most importantly of them all, be patient!

  • The market will eventually recover.

  • Train America wins in the long term!

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Economic Calendar For: April 7 - April 11, 2025 

All times in PST

Monday April 7👇

See how the market processes tariffs

Tuesday April 8👇

Nada

Wednesday April 9👇

Delta Airlines Earnings (pre market)

11a Fed Minutes

Thursday April 10👇

530a Initial Jobless Claims

530a CPI inflation data

Friday April 11👇

5:30a PPI inflation data

Chase Bank Earnings (pre market)

BlackRock Earnings (pre market)

Morgan Stanley Earnings (pre market)

Wells Fargo Earnings (pre market)

I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Course members only discord!

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

I moved all trades and potential plays to ACADEMY members ONLY Discord!

Take your game to the next level. Join My Investing Academy. Come into my mastermind Discord!

  • QQQ - $510

  • VOO- $550

  • IWM- $205

  • SOXX- $190

  • TSLA - $310

  • NVDA- $150

  • AAPL - $240

  • PLTR- $75

  • AMZN- $220

  • GOOG - $180

  • MSFT - $425

  • JPM - $260

  • SOFI - $10

  • TSM  - $200

  • AMD - $105

  • META - $650

  • MU - $100

  • BITCOIN - $85,000

  • SOLANA - $200

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

  • QQQ- $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • VOO- $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • SOXX- $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • TSLA- $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

  • NVDA- $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

  • AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • AMZN- $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • NVDA - $1,250 (assuming 45% annual ROI)

    (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX ADVISOR, OR INSURANCE ADVISOR. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, COURSES, OR OTHER CONTENT CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL, INSURANCE, OR OTHER ADVICE, NOR SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, OR OTHER CONTENT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING AN INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER OBTAINING RELEVANT AND SPECIFIC PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. IF YOU NEED SUCH ADVICE, PLEASE CONTACT A QUALIFIED CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX PROFESSIONAL,  INSURANCE AGENT, OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CAN LOSE MONEY INVESTING AND TRADING. LINKED ITEMS MAY CREATE A FINANCIAL BENEFIT FOR INVESTINGWITHBRANDON.