Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every Sunday!

I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better!

Enjoy!

-Brandon

Fear & Greed Index👇

• Current read is 21 on the fear greed index vs 20 last week.

• I feel that we are closer to 50 vs what this says, so in balance.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals.

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation.

Current Interest Rates👇

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate is flat at 6.71% Today vs 6.71% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.32% Today, vs 4.30% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.02% Today, vs 4.00% last Sunday.

• Interest rates overall stayed flat week to week.

The State of The Stock Market Right Now👇

February 19, 2025 marks the day the S&P500/Nasdaq peaked out… Then things took a turn for the worse… Tariffs, trade wars, inflation, recession, jobs market, interest rates, market bubble… These are the hot topics people are talking about to justify the market dip lower. This has many people wondering: When will we bottom? Do we buy the dip? Is this the next financial collapse? I will give you my thoughts below.

Tariffs👇

• This seems to be the “theme” with Trumps tariffs.

• Threaten tariffs and say they will go live in a month, market falls.

• As the week go by leading up to the tariffs, market rebounds anticipating they will not actually go into effect.

• Tariffs actually go into effect & the market falls.

• Few days after they go into effect, Trump comes out and says they reached a deal and they are no longer on the table…

• Now, people that have read his book “art of the deal” you’ll understand what he is doing here.

• Expectations vs reality.

• When you sound tuff and act tuff, other countries or whoever is on the other side of the negotiation will view you as not willing to bend the knee or compromise.

• This turn pressures countries to make deals knowing that Trump means tariffs when he says it.

• Kinda like how Jerome Powell at the Fed did things when we were in the high inflation period last year & the year prior.

• Even though inflation was coming down, he never gave the public signal that they were considering cutting, until the last second.

• He didn’t want the public to think he was not serious because expectations are just as important as reality.

Economy👇

• So we got some data this week regarding the economy.

• Some of the data I consider to be BS, but some is legit.

• Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in well below expectations.

• This means people are bearish about the economy, which of course they are… they are chickens with their heads cut off every time the market dips.

• Everyone needs to understand that we just came off 2 back to back KILLER years for market returns.

• So yes, there is some profit taking & honestly the market has been super easy.

• Now that things are getting tough with new negative catalysts, sentiment is turning negative and people are just fueling the fire to sell.

• The stock market is an emotional roller coaster.

• When it’s going up, people are optimistic, when it’s going down, people are pessimistic…

• But that does NOT reflect the true strength/weakness of the economy.

• Good investors realize this!

• University of Michigan 5 year inflation expectations went through the roof also.

• But the funny part is how the data gets collected.

• So this survey is worthless… Too much political bias.

• We did get CPI & PPI inflation data also.

• This is VERY important!

• CPI for February came in at +2.8% YoY below expectations of +2.9% YoY

• I was talking to Academy members in Discord and said this is EXACTLY what I wanna see.

• Not too soft to indicate no demand in the economy, which pushes prices down, but obviously not too hot to indicate interest rates higher for longer…

• So based on this CPI read, the market is betting on 3 cuts this year bringing interest rates down to range down to 3.5% to 3.75%.

• Good!

• PPI (producer price index) came in flat MoM

• This indicates that inflationary pressures may be cooling, which is what I expected and have been saying for months now. 

• But it will be bumpy… Fed now has a little more leeway to cut rates.

• This will help support the markets!

• Expect volatility until the trade tariff BS gets worked out.

Federal Reserve👇

• Jerome Powell at the fed talks this upcoming week (see economic calendar below)

• He will most likely be keeping interest rates at current levels.

• Let’s look at the odds from the CME fed watch tool to see the chances of cuts by the fed meetings this year.

• March 19, 2025 meeting = 98% chance of no cut.

• May 7, 2025 meeting = 71% chance of no cut & 29% chance of 0.25% cut.

• June 18, 2025 meeting = 23% chance of no cut, 57% chance of 0.25% cut, 19% chance of 0.5% cut.

• So June is really where interest rate cuts are getting priced back in.

• Jumping to the December 10th meeting of this year, we are expected to be somewhere around 3.5% which is 0.75% lower than where we currently are.

• You can see the big disconnect here between the University of Michigan vs what we actually expect rates to be at…

• I get it that it’s 5 years vs 1 year on the time horizons here, but you wouldn’t price in rate cuts of 0.75% if you really expected inflation to skyrocket.

• I put more weight on CME fed watch tool vs a bias survey.

• So overall, rates are gravity on the stock market like I have been saying forever.

• Rates Up = Stock PEs usually fall

• Rates Down = Stock PEs usually climb

• There is more to this, but in simple terms, that is how it works.

US & Ukraine Relations👇

• There is potential for a Russia Ukraine ceasefire which would be great!

• This could be the start of ending this.

• Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been going back and forth with a minerals deal that could potentially grant Ukraine protections from Russia.

• At the end of the day, I would like to see Trump, Putin, & Zelenskyy get in a room together and fight this out. (but of course there is egos involved so who knows…)

• Nobody is winning the war, BUT I am optimistic this will be ended soon.

• The market will like that.

Market Volatility👇

• Lots of people panicking after 2 back to back 25% ish years for the market.

• For sure some profit taking, but also all the newbies that came in only had the color green on their color wheel and now that they see this new color red, they have no clue what to do…

• It does seem like there is a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off right now out there.

• Everyone was a genius in the bull market the last 2 years, but now that things are dipping, most of the Robinhood meme hype boys are gone. GOOD!

• Be an investor, not a speculator.

• Simple.

Market Valuation👇

• S&P 500's forward (P/E) ratio stands at 20.5, significantly above the historical average of approximately 16. This elevated ratio suggests that the market is currently overvalued compared to historical norms.​

• Check out the forward PE ratio chart below of the Mag 8 stocks (pink) & the SP500 (red).

• You can see, PEs are coming down, and this is good!

• The 2 main factors for this are: 1. The market is falling, 2. Earnings are increasing.

• So this is “double good” for the market because the market is becoming cheaper from both a stock price standpoint and & earnings standpoint.

• Lots of AI growth is being priced in, and time will tell if we reap the rewards from that!

• The chart below this one is BIG

• I was talking with Academy members in Zoom about this a few weeks ago.

• This chart shows the SP500 stock chart (light blue) with the earnings (black)

• In very simple terms, stocks & earnings move together, so at some point, the earnings line & stock chart lines WILL overlap.

• That means stocks continue to fall, or earnings just catch up.

• 1 thing is for sure, there is opportunity out there!

My Overall Take👇

• Valuations are coming back into balance, but more pain can be ahead.

• Remember the chart above, the 2 lines WILL 100% cross again.

• Maybe this month, maybe next month, or maybe next year, or years after, but they will come back into balance at some point.

• Trump is stirring the pot with tariffs and this is giving people a reason to sell.

• Inflation is falling, but it’s bumpy

• Interest rates are trending down slowly (good for stocks)

• Bonds & Stocks compete with each other.

• As bond yields fall, stocks become more attractive.

• Market dip is healthy & needed.

• Time in the market > timing the market.

• I have about $1m in margin buying power ready to go if we dip lower.

• I stay invested and keep cash pile low.

• Build the base of your portfolio.

• Use options on high confidence plays to magnify returns.

• Yes, there is A LOT of opportunity out there right now.

• The question is, are you going to capitalize.

• Or are you going to sit on your hands…

• Join my Academy & come into my Exclusive Private Discord for Academy members only

• It will change your life.

MASSIVE 50% off coupon RIGHT NOW to learn how to invest in stocks & options once and for all. Click the button below to get in!

Economic Calendar For: March 17-21, 2025 

All times in PST

Monday March 17👇

5:30a Retail Sales

Tuesday March 18👇

5:30a Housing Starts

Jensen Huang (NVDA CEO) Keynote

Wednesday March 19👇

11a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

11:30a Jerome Powell Press Conference

Tariff Update

Thursday March 20👇

5:30a Initial Jobless Claims

Micron Earnings (post market)

Nike Earnings (post market)

FedEx Earnings (post market)

Friday March 21👇

Nada!

I will be breaking all of this down in real time in Academy members only discord!

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

I moved all trades and potential plays to ACADEMY members ONLY Discord!

Take your game to the next level. Join My Investing Academy. Come into my mastermind Discord!

• QQQ - $535

• VOO- $560

• IWM- $220

• SOXX- $215

• TSLA - $310

• NVDA- $160

• AAPL - $250

• PLTR- $85

• AMZN- $240

• GOOG - $200

• MSFT - $445

• JPM - $280

• SOFI - $12

• TSM  - $225

• AMD - $120

• META - $720

• MU - $120

• BITCOIN - $90,000

• SOLANA - $235

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

• QQQ- $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• VOO- $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• SOXX- $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• TSLA- $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

• NVDA- $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

• AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• AMZN- $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

• MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

• NVDA - $1,250 (assuming 45% annual ROI)

  (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

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