Alpha Report Issue #64

A Breakdown On My Favorite ETFs

Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open!

I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better!

Enjoy!

-Brandon

wolf of wall street GIF

Today’s Heat Map👇

Monday February 10, 2025 RECAP👇

  • Market pushed higher today & all eyes are on the CPI inflation report due on Wednesday.

  • My favorite ETFs & why!

  • More on all of this below.

Fear & Greed Index For Today👇

  • 46 Today & 36 Friday

  • I feel that we are closer to 60 vs what this says.

  • Market pushed higher today, which pushed the needle to the right a little.

  • Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals

  • Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation.

Today’s Economic Updates👇

  • 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.95% Today vs 6.96% Friday.

  • 10 year treasury bond yield flat at 4.49% today, vs 4.49% Friday.

  • 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.27% today, vs 4.29% Friday.

Lets Break Down Some Of My Favorite ETFs👇

Did you know there are more ETFs than there are public companies? Yep! There are thousands of choices and it gets very complex to pick the “right” one. Lets break it down here how I think about it.

My Top 5 ETFs In No Specific Order👇

  • VOO - Tracks the S&P 500, which represents the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.

  • QQQ - Tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index, which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavily weighted in tech.

  • SOXX - Tracks the semiconductor Index, which consists of U.S. listed semiconductor companies.

  • SMH - Tracks 25 of the largest semiconductor companies.

  • VGT - Tracks the U.S. technology sector, including software, hardware, and IT services.

Lets Start With Some Charts👇

This compares the 5 based on historical returns.

  • So you can see SMH wins on a 10 year return, but there is a kicker.

  • SMH was started in 2011, so it hasn’t been through major recessions.

  • Also, SMH is HEAVY on Nvidia, which we all know how that did the last few years… MOONED.

  • QQQ has a longer track record of being through more legit crashes (2008)

  • SMH has not been through anything besides covid & fed tightening in 2022, so it is hard to know how SMH will actually do in times of market crashes.

  • I don't consider 2022 a crash, it was a correction.

  • Lets compare more

  • Then I will rank them

Holdings Within👇

  • SMH has 26 total holdings currently & is HEAVY Tech/Chips/AI related things.

  • So yes, those things have been RIPPING the last few years and that is why it did so well. Nvidia is almost 20% of the index.

  • But if AI/Chips spending slows down (which I do not think it will at least this year, this index will get hit hard.)

  • Let’s look at QQQ

  • QQQ is much more diversified, which helps when things dip lower or there is sector rotation.

  • Here is the thing, it is always easy to throw ETFs on a chart and say this one crushed it the last 10 years, so it must crush the next 10...

  • Can that happen? of course! But it's not a guarantee.

  • The key is to see the holdings within, and see on a broad level, are these companies trading near intrinsic value & is there a durable competitive advantage.

  • I think in raging tech bull markets SMH will do the best.

  • But QQQ will also do very well.

  • Also, if there is still a raging tech bull market, but just less chip need, QQQ will prob beat SMH

Ok Lets Score Them👇

  • I will score them based on 3 market conditions.

  • Bull Market. Flat Market. Bear Market.

  • Ranking is from 1 to 5.

  • 1 will perform the best.

  • 5 will perform the worst.

Who do I think will do best in a bull market:👇

  1. SMH

  2. SOXX

  3. VGT

  4. QQQ

  5. VOO

Who do I think will do best in a flat market: 👇

  1. VOO

  2. QQQ

  3. VGT

  4. SMH

  5. SOXX

 Who do I think will do best in a bear market: 👇

  1. VOO

  2. QQQ

  3. VGT

  4. SMH

  5. SOXX

Final Takeaways:👇

  • I just wanna be super clear here.

  • VGT is great, QQQ is great, SOXX is great, SMH is great. VOO is great.

  • Some will win in certain market conditions, some will lose.

  • It all comes down to ratios though how you make up your portfolio

  • I build the base of my portfolio 40% QQQ, 40% VOO, and 20% Individual companies.

  • I then use options to generate about $30k/mo in cash flow.

  • The key is learning how to value a company, how to spot opportunities, when to get in, when to get out, how to manage risk, and how to win consistently.

  • If you want my full system and how you can immediately start doing this, check out my course below!

Current Thoughts In My Head👇

  • Day to day stock price changes don’t matter.

  • Be an investor, zoom out, and be patient.

  • Day to day movements don’t matter

  • The market feels a bit stretched—probably about 5-10% above intrinsic value.

  • Trump seems committed to keeping the economy strong and driving inflation down, which could provide stability if it actually pans out.

  • BUT, he also loves tariffs & the market does not…

  • Earnings have been solid so far, which is exactly what’s needed to justify current stock valuations.

  • I’m not calling this a bubble, but things are a little expensive.

  • As always, be prepared for any scenario.

Economic Calendar For: Feb 10-14, 2025

All times in PST

Monday, Feb 10👇

McDonalds Earnings (pre market)

Tuesday, Feb 11👇

7a Jerome Powell testifies to congress.

SMCI Earnings (post market)

Wednesday, Feb 12👇

530a CPI Data (inflation data)

7a Jerome Powell testifies to congress.

Robinhood Earnings (post market)

Cisco Earnings (post market)

Thursday, Feb 13👇

530a Initial Jobless Claims

530a PPI Data (Producer Price Index)

Coinbase Earnings (post market)

Palo Alto Networks Earnings (post market)

Friday, Feb 14👇

530a Retail Sales

I will be breaking all of this down in real time in course members only discord!

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

I moved all trades and potential plays to course members ONLY Discord!

Take your game to the next level. Do my course. Come into my mastermind Discord!

  • QQQ - $565

  • VOO- $575

  • IWM- $240

  • SOXX- $240

  • TSLA - $390

  • NVDA- $170

  • AAPL - $250

  • PLTR- $90

  • AMZN- $255

  • GOOG - $200

  • MSFT - $450

  • JPM - $275

  • SOFI - $12

  • TSM  - $225

  • AMD - $135

  • META - $750

  • BITCOIN - $95,000

  • SOLANA - $240

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

  • QQQ- $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • VOO- $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • SOXX- $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • TSLA- $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

  • NVDA- $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

  • AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • AMZN- $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

    (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇

(updated daily)

👇Yearly Account Account Value

  • December 2018 - $0

  • December 2019 - $45,251

  • December 2020 - $150,191

  • December 2021 - $267,524

  • December 2022- $290,315

  • December 2023 - $506,223

  • December 2024 - $927,796

  • IN PROGRESS 2025 - $952,011

Screenshot from today

👇Portfolio Thoughts

  • Amazing growth from 2018 to Current all off of a total contribution of $90,000.

  • That is over a 10x in 7 years!

  • I did this in a very low risk and conservative way.

  • I feel the market is a little stretched & volatility is healthy and normal!

  • If bond yields continue to climb, I expect pain in the markets to continue.

  • I will continue to find great investments / options plays that will pan out to explode the portfolio in the long run.

  • Month to month and even year to year volatility is irrelevant.

  • I see volatility as opportunity!

  • My goal is $5,000,000 in this account by 2030.

  • I see this as very achievable and if the market dips further, I will capitalize heavily, just like I did in 2022!

  • Stay the course and keep your emotions in check!

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX ADVISOR, OR INSURANCE ADVISOR. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, COURSES, OR OTHER CONTENT CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL, INSURANCE, OR OTHER ADVICE, NOR SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, OR OTHER CONTENT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING AN INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER OBTAINING RELEVANT AND SPECIFIC PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. IF YOU NEED SUCH ADVICE, PLEASE CONTACT A QUALIFIED CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX PROFESSIONAL,  INSURANCE AGENT, OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CAN LOSE MONEY INVESTING AND TRADING. LINKED ITEMS MAY CREATE A FINANCIAL BENEFIT FOR INVESTINGWITHBRANDON.