Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open! I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better! Enjoy!

-Brandon

Today’s Heat Map👇

Wednesday January 29, 2025 RECAP👇

• Market fell a little today as the market digests the Fed & braced for big tech earnings.

• Tesla, Meta, & Microsoft were some of the big dogs that reported today.

• More on this below.

Fear & Greed Index For Today👇

• 45 Yesterday & 46 Today.

• Market was down a little today but up after hours. (so not much movement)

• I feel that we are closer to 55 vs what this says, so kinda neutral.

• Always keep your emotions in check on pumps & dumps!

• Short term market movements are usually irrelevant.

• Volatility is opportunity.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Today’s Economic Updates👇

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.95% today vs 6.97% Yesterday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.54% today, vs 4.55% Yesterday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.22% today, vs 4.19% Yesterday.

• The fed kept rates steady in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% today.

• More on this below!

Lets Break Down The Fed👇

• Jerome Powell at the fed kept rates steady today @ 4.25% to 4.5%

I summarized everything that he talked about here👇

• Economic Outlook: The economy remains strong, with a solid labor market that appears balanced based on multiple indicators. Job hiring rates have slowed, making it harder to find jobs, but overall job creation is stable.

• Inflation & Interest Rates: Inflation is still somewhat elevated but anchored in expectations. The Fed is not in a hurry to adjust rates and acknowledges that forecasting even a few months ahead is challenging. Current policy remains restrictive but has become less so compared to when rates were 1% higher.

• Fed Policy & Neutral Rate: The Fed’s 5-year policy review starts this year. Powell indicated that the current rate of 4.3% is above the long-term neutral rate, meaning policy remains restrictive but not excessively so.

• Market & External Factors: The Fed is monitoring tech and AI volatility but is not reacting to it. Crypto is being watched, but the Fed is not against it and supports clearer regulation.

• Risks & Uncertainty: A spike in layoffs could quickly raise unemployment due to the low hiring environment. Powell emphasized that economic surprises can happen and that disinflation remains on a slow, bumpy path.

• Financial System Health: Banks are well-capitalized, and households remain financially stable. Powell likened interest rates to "gravity," reinforcing their impact on the economy.

So What Does This Mean?

• The economy is in balance.

• Policy is tight, but not too tight.

• Fed is positioned to make progress on inflation & support the labor market.

• Expect rates to trend down, but slowly.

• You know my line, “Rates are gravity”

• As rates fall, stocks become more attractive assuming you keep everything else the same.

Lets Break Down Tesla👇

• Today after the market closed, we got earnings from Tesla, Microsoft, & Meta.

• I will share my analysis here from Tesla only.

• I break down all major companies earnings reports with potential plays in course members only discord!

• Click the link below to get my course 60% off and have the ability to get into course members discord!

TESLA BREAKDOWN👇

• Currently trading at $405/share

• Q4 24 EPS: $0.73 (happened today)

• Q3 24 EPS: $0.72

• Q2 24 EPS: $0.52

• Q1 24 EPS: $0.45

• Total TTM EPS: $2.42

• 405/2.42= 167 PE trailing.

• EPS same quarter last year was $0.71 vs 0.73 now. That’s 3% EPS gain YoY.

• Revenue same quarter last year was $25.1b vs $25.7b now. That's 2% revenue gain YoY.

• The stock is up 103% in the last year

• Stock is up a few percent after hours.

• As I’ve said before, Tesla’s valuation is all about RoboTaxi & Optimus.

• Those won’t materially impact the bottom line for at least another year, making it tough to value the company with so many unknowns.

• A 167 P/E is high, no doubt, but explosive growth is expected.

Earnings Call Takeaways👇

• Elon is hyping up an epic 2026 and ridiculous growth in 2027 & 2028.

• He’s ultra bullish on FSD and RoboTaxi, calling it the biggest asset value increase in history.

• Battery packs are the current bottleneck.

• Tesla expects ballistic growth in 2026-2028.

• Optimus is much harder to train than FSD, & thousands will be made this year.

• Scaling to millions of Optimus bots per year won’t take long.

• The bot will eventually be able to play piano and thread a needle.

• Elon says Optimus will be the majority of Tesla’s valuation in the future.

• 2025 marks the biggest year in Tesla history, with a new model still on track for 1H 2025.

• Q4 EPS was lower due to the Model Y ramp, but they expect to scale fast.

• Unsupervised FSD launches in Austin this June, then expands to other areas later this year.

• Other automakers are interested in licensing Tesla’s FSD.

• Optimus will be available for purchase by companies at the end of 2026.

• Once Optimus production hits 1M units per year, it will cost $20K per bot to produce.

• HW3 isn't fully dead yet, but it’s looking like it won’t cut it for unsupervised FSD.

• Tesla is in-between a massive growth phase where it’s hard to value because the major growth drivers (RoboTaxi & Optimus) are still a year or so away from impacting earnings.

• The next few quarters might be choppy, but Elon is betting everything on what’s coming in 2026+.

What Am I Personally Doing?👇

• I own about 700 shares of Tesla straight up.

• This is almost 10% of my entire net worth.

• I plan to add shares of Tesla on pull backs.

• If the pull backs are deep, I will use options to magnify the bullish expected move.

• For now, the stock is priced a little high, but that doesn’t mean it has to correct lower.

• It can “grow into it’s valuation”

• Time will tell!

• Only make plays with high margin of safery that you understand!

Economic Calendar👇

Economic Calendar For: Jan 27–31, 2025

All times in PST

Thursday, Jan 30👇

UPS earnings (pre market)

Mastercard earnings (pre market)

530a GDP Data

530a Initial Jobless Claims

Apple earnings (post market)

Visa earnings (post market)

Intel earnings (post market)

Friday, Jan 31👇

Chevron earnings (pre market)

Exxon earnings (pre market)

530a PCE Data

530a Employment Cost Index

I will be breaking all of this down in real time in course members only discord!

Current Thoughts In My Head👇

• Day to day stock price changes don’t matter.

• Be an investor zoom out and be patient.

• Day to day movements don’t matter

• The market feels a bit stretched—probably about 5-10% above intrinsic value.

• Trump seems committed to keeping the economy strong and driving inflation down, which could provide stability if it actually pans out.

• Earnings have been solid so far, which is exactly what’s needed to justify current stock valuations.

• I’m not calling this a bubble, but let’s be real—things are a little frothy.

• As always, be prepared for any scenario.

• I’m an investor, not a speculator.

Words To Live By👇

• Do not make plays to make plays.

• ONLY make high margin of safety plays.

• Do not buy something just cause the share price is going up

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Check Out My Links👇

(This is ONLY my free section of discord, you will not be able to see the course members section)

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

• QQQ - $565

• VOO - $575

• IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $400

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $250

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $245

• GOOG - $205

• MSFT - $460

• JPM - $260

• SOFI - $12

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

• QQQ - $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• VOO - $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• SOXX - $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• TSLA - $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

• NVDA - $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

• AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• AMZN - $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

• MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇

(updated daily)

👇Yearly Account Account Value

• December 2018 - $0

• December 2019 - $45,251

• December 2020 - $150,191

• December 2021 - $267,524

• December 2022- $290,315

• December 2023 - $506,223

• December 2024 - $927,796

• IN PROGRESS 2025 - $943,073

👇Portfolio Thoughts

• Amazing growth from 2018 to Current all off of a total contribution of $90,000.

• That is over a 10x in 7 years!

• I did this in a very low risk and conservative way.

• I feel the market is a little stretched & volatility is healthy and normal!

• If bond yields continue to climb, I expect pain in the markets to continue.

• I will continue to find great investments / options plays that will pan out to explode the portfolio in the long run.

• Month to month and even year to year volatility is irrelevant.

• I see volatility as opportunity!

• My goal is $5,000,000 in this account by 2030.

• I see this as very achievable and if the market dips further, I will capitalize heavily, just like I did in 2022!

• Stay the course and keep your emotions in check!

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

👇Check Out My Links👇