Alpha Report Issue #48

Is The Economy In Trouble? Maybe...

Welcome to The Alpha Report đź‘‹

Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open! I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better! Enjoy!

-Brandon

Today’s Heat Map👇

Thursday January 16, 2025👇

  • Market opened up GREEN and bounced around to end solidly in the red.

  • More banks reported earnings today, plus we got more economic news that gives us a gauge of the strength of the economy.

  • More on this below.

Fear & Greed Index For Today👇

  • 29 Yesterday & 28 Today.

  • Stocks fell today due to weaker than expected economic data.

  • I feel that we are closer to 50 vs what this says, so kinda in balance.

  • Always keep your emotions in check on pumps & dumps!

  • Short term market movements are usually irrelevant.

  • Volatility is opportunity.

  • Be greedy when others are fearful.

Be fearful when others are greedy.

Today’s Economic Updates👇

  • 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 7.09% today vs 7.11% Yesterday.

  • 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.61% today, vs 4.65% Yesterday.

  • 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.24% today, vs 4.27% Yesterday.

  • December retail sales increased by 0.4%, vs 0.6% expected.

  • Initial jobless claims came in at 217K, slightly above the forecast of 210K.

    (more on this below)

Our Current Economy👇

  • So today we got data about retail sales & how many people were looking for jobs.

  • December retail sales increased by 0.4%, vs 0.6% expected.

  • Initial jobless claims came in at 217K, slightly above the forecast of 210K.

  • Consumer spending was a tad weaker than anticipated (retail sales), and more people filed for unemployment than expected.

  • While this isn’t great news for the economy, it could be seen as positive for the market since softer spending and a slight uptick in jobless claims may help ease inflation.

  • This could potentially bringing us closer to more interest rate cuts being priced in.

This Is The Issue👇 

  • Yes we want rates to be low, but we don’t want them to be low in a recessionary environment.

  • Remember what I say, we would much rather have rates a little high in a strong economy, vs low rates in a recession.

  • I don’t think we are very close to a recession, but we must be careful to not keep policy too tight and hurt the economy too much.

  • Check out the chart below for interest rate expectations.

This is for the December 10, 2025 meeting. 14% chance of NO cuts. 33% chance of 0.25% cut. This is slowly pricing in more cuts as the inflation data comes out soft (PPI & CPI) and the economic data comes in a little soft too.

  • I think my Goldilocks situation is playing out so far where I expect the economy to slowly weaken a little bit.

  • At the same time, I think we will “weaken” to a “normal” level”

  • As this happens, more interest rate cuts will get priced in, which is good for stocks as long as the economy stays strong.

Earnings Season Continues👇

  • Bank of America, Taiwan Semiconductor, United Health, & Morgan Stanley reported earnings today.

  • I listened to all the earnings calls and read the reports.

  • This takes hours to do, but if you wanna be an informed investor, this is what it takes!

  • Overall it was pretty good!

  • I break ALL of this down in course members ONLY discord so you don’t have to!

  • Consider doing my course and coming into Discord to get my live updates, trades, and access to me all day long in real time!

  • This is ONLY for course members.

Words To Live By👇

  • Do not make plays to make plays.

  • ONLY make high margin of safety plays.

  • Do not buy something just cause the share price is going up

  • Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

  • When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

  • Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

  • QQQ - $565

  • VOO - $575

  • IWM - $240

  • SOXX - $240

  • TSLA - $400

  • NVDA - $190

  • AAPL - $250

  • PLTR - $60

  • AMZN - $245

  • GOOG - $205

  • MSFT - $460

  • JPM - $260

  • TSM - $230

  • SOFI - $12

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

  • QQQ - $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • VOO - $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • SOXX - $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

  • TSLA - $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

  • NVDA - $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

  • AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

  • AMZN - $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

  • TSM - $660 (assuming 20% annual ROI)

    (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

(updated daily)

These are in order from least risky to most risky!

  • VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

  • QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

  • SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

  • JPM - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

  • TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year min hold duration

  • NVDA - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

  • AMZN - DCA Shares - 5 year min hold duration

  • NVDA - Sell Puts - 1 year duration -Strike of $115

  • SOXX - Sell Puts - 2 Year Duration - Strike $180

  • GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $160

  • TSM - Sell Put - 1 year duration - Strike: $165

  • NVDA - Buy Calls - 1 year duration -Strike of $135

  • TSLA - Sell Calls - 1 week duration - Strike $470

  • PLTR- Sell Calls - 2 week duration - Strike Price $85

  • MSTR - Sell calls - 1 week duration - Strike $95 OTM

    (Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, ONLY for course members)

👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇

(updated daily)

👇Yearly Account Account Value

  • December 2018 - $0

  • December 2019 - $45,251

  • December 2020 - $150,191

  • December 2021 - $267,524

  • December 2022- $290,315

  • December 2023 - $506,223

  • December 2024 - $927,796

  • IN PROGRESS 2025 - $962,397

👇Portfolio Thoughts

  • Amazing growth from 2018 to Current all off of a total contribution of $90,000.

  • That is over a 10x in 7 years!

  • I did this in a very low risk and conservative way.

  • I feel the market got a little stretched and this pull back is healthy.

  • If bond yields continue to climb, I expect pain in the markets to continue.

  • I will continue to find great investments / options plays that will pan out to explode the portfolio in the long run.

  • Month to month and even year to year volatility is irrelevant.

  • I see volatility as opportunity!

  • My goal is $5,000,000 in this account by 2030.

  • I see this as very achievable and if the market dips further, I will capitalize heavily, just like I did in 2022!

  • Stay the course and keep your emotions in check!

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

Blue = Me, Black = Nasdaq, Orange = SP500

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX ADVISOR, OR INSURANCE ADVISOR. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, COURSES, OR OTHER CONTENT CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL, INSURANCE, OR OTHER ADVICE, NOR SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, OR OTHER CONTENT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING AN INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER OBTAINING RELEVANT AND SPECIFIC PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. IF YOU NEED SUCH ADVICE, PLEASE CONTACT A QUALIFIED CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX PROFESSIONAL,  INSURANCE AGENT, OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CAN LOSE MONEY INVESTING AND TRADING. LINKED ITEMS MAY CREATE A FINANCIAL BENEFIT FOR INVESTINGWITHBRANDON.