Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open! I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better! Enjoy!

-Brandon

Today’s Heat Map👇

Tuesday January 14, 2025👇

• Market opened up GREEN, with volatility throughout the day & ended up flat ish as the market digests PPI data and prepares for CPI tomorrow.

• More on this below.

Fear & Greed Index For Today👇

• 27 Yesterday & 27 Today.

• Stocks pumped pre market today, but bounced around to end flat ish.

• I feel that we are closer to 50 vs what this says, so kinda in balance.

• Always keep your emotions in check on pumps & dumps!

• Short term market movements are usually irrelevant.

• Volatility is opportunity.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Today’s Economic Updates👇

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 7.22% today vs 7.25% Yesterday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.79% today, vs 4.78% Yesterday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.36% today, vs 4.37% Yesterday.

• PPI Data Dropped Today👇

• PPI 3.3% YoY, (Est. 3.5%)

• PPI 0.2% MoM, (Est. 0.4%)

• PPI Core 3.5% YoY, (Est. 3.8%)

• PPI Core 0.0% MoM, (Est. 0.3%)

• More on this below!

Data Starts To Roll In👇

• So this morning we got PPI data and it came in softer vs expected which is good.

• So why did the market drop as the day went on?

• Let’s look at this chart of the PPI data the last few years.

• Yes the PPI data came in lower vs expectations but the trend is still increasing.

• The market viewed this as “better than feared”, but potentially not good enough.

• This is also reflected in the 10 year bond bouncing around today as investors try to decide if this was a bullish report or not.

• Of course I am happy this came in below expectations, but expectations aren’t everything to me.

• I care about reality, not what some analyst thinks it should be at.

• You can see in the first chart that we have a clear up trend since 2023 and this is a leading indicator to CPI which matters the most.

• PPI is what the producers of the products we consume pay to produce the product.

• CPI is the cost we as consumers pay.

• So if PPI goes up, expect CPI to trend up too, but this is sometimes laggy by the time companies pass the higher costs on to the consumers.

• Of course this is a little more complex than that, but this is why expectations matter.

• If the analysts say “we think PPI will be 3.5%” then that gets “priced in” to the markets.

• That got priced in by the means of bond yields pumping and CME fed watch tool showing less cuts this year vs expected, and stocks usually fall.

• Then when the data comes in softer than expected, the market has to “re price in” more cuts which is usually bullish for stocks.

• That is what happened pre market today when stocks pumped and yields tanked, but then the market said ahhhhh I think we gotta wait for CPI tomorrow to get the full picture of inflation.

• I am overall happy with the report of 3.3% YOY. This implies the next few CPI reports should be tame and not go up like crazy cause of that lag time it takes companies to raise prices and to reflect in CPI.

Things I Have My Eyes On This Week👇 

• WEDNESDAY JAN 15:

• 530a CPI Data

• Chase Earnings (pre market)

• Goldman Sachs Earnings (pre market)

• Blackrock Earnings (pre market)

• Citi Earnings (pre market)

• Wells Fargo Earnings (pre market)

   

• THURSDAY JAN 16:

• 530a Initial Jobless Claims

• 530a Retail Sales

• 530a Import Prices Index

• Taiwan Semiconductors Earnings (pre market)

• Bank of America Earnings (pre market)

• Morgan Stanley Earnings (pre market)

• United Health Earnings (pre market)

Why This Stuff Matters👇

• Higher inflation = Interest rates higher for longer.

• If PPI/CPI comes in hot, expect the market to dip most likely.

• Hot data will signal to the fed that inflation is coming back and they will keep rates higher for longer.

• It is a delicate thing and I will be covering all day long in Discord in real time.

• Earnings are the number one that that matters to what a stock is going to do in the long run.

• Short term is bumpy for stock prices, but as I show in my course, stocks follow earnings in the long run.

• High EPS growth expectations are priced in to the market now and that is shown in the high PE ratios.

So What Am I Doing👇

• I am being VERY careful this week and through this earnings season until I get a good gauge of the health of the market.

• Once we get through inflation data & earnings, I will have more clarity on the condition of the market.

• I am positioned to capitalize on upside & downside in the market.

• I listen to hours of earnings calls every quarter to get a gauge of what the CEOs are seeing out there.

• I like to keep my sample size as large as possible to see all aspects of the market, not just tech.

• I am not big on making short term bets before earnings.

• That is gambling and most people will get smoked when you do that for the long run.

• I will be breaking EVERYTHING down in course members ONLY discord in real time!

Final Comments On Today👇

• Do not make plays to make plays.

• ONLY make high margin of safety plays.

• Do not buy something just cause the share price is going up

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Check Out My Links👇

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

(updated daily)

• QQQ - $565

• VOO - $575

• IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $400

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $250

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $245

• GOOG - $205

• MSFT - $460

• JPM - $260

• TSM - $230

• SOFI - $12

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

• QQQ - $830 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• VOO - $830 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• SOXX - $360 (assuming 8% annual ROI)

• TSLA - $1,200 (assuming 18% annual ROI)

• NVDA - $645 (assuming 25% annual ROI)

• AAPL - $375 (assuming 7% annual ROI)

• AMZN - $550 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

• MSFT - $1,000 (assuming 15% annual ROI)

• TSM - $660 (assuming 20% annual ROI)

  (of course a lot of these will split, this is non split adjusted)

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

(updated daily)

These are in order from least risky to most risky!

• VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

• QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

• SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

• TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year min hold duration

• NVDA - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration

• AMZN - DCA Shares - 5 year min hold duration

• NVDA - Sell Puts - 1 year duration -Strike of $110

• SOXX - Sell Puts - 2 Year Duration - Strike $180

• GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $160

• TSM - Sell Put - 1 year duration - Strike: $160

• NVDA - Buy Calls - 1 year duration -Strike of $135

• TSLA - Sell Calls - 1 week duration - Strike $450

• PLTR- Sell Calls - 2 week duration - Strike Price $85

• MSTR - Sell calls - 1 week duration - Strike $95 OTM
  

  (Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, ONLY FOR COURSE MEMBERS)

👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇

(updated daily)

👇Yearly Account Account Value

• December 2018 - $0

• December 2019 - $45,251

• December 2020 - $150,191

• December 2021 - $267,524

• December 2022- $290,315

• December 2023 - $506,223

• December 2024 - $927,796

• IN PROGRESS 2025 - $934,139

👇Portfolio Thoughts

• Amazing growth from 2018 to Current all off of a total contribution of $90,000.

• That is over a 10x in 7 years!

• I did this in a very low risk and conservative way.

• I feel the market got a little stretched and this pull back is healthy.

• If bond yields continue to climb, I expect pain in the markets to continue.

• I will continue to find great investments / options plays that will pan out to explode the portfolio in the long run.

• Month to month and even year to year volatility is irrelevant.

• I see volatility as opportunity!

• My goal is $5,000,000 in this account by 2030.

• I see this as very achievable and if the market dips further, I will capitalize heavily, just like I did in 2022!

• Stay the course and keep your emotions in check!

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

👇Check Out My Links👇