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- Alpha Report Issue #38
Alpha Report Issue #38
2024 Recap. 2025 Outlook Is TURBULENT
Brandon
December 31, 2024
Welcome to The Alpha Report đź‘‹
Hey guys!
I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open! I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better! Enjoy!
-Brandon
Today’s Heat Map👇
Market was red overall today again. That’s totally fine. Things need to take a breather. Remember my thesis, I’m in the camp that we are about 10% over valued. If you can’t stomach the volatility, stocks are not for you. People that understand how the market works understand volatility is opportunity.
Today’s Biggest Winners/Losers👇
Nasdaq Biggest Winnersâś…
Nasdaq Biggest Losers❌
The market peaked out December 16th around $538/share for the Nasdaq $QQQ.
Currently at $515 so roughly a 4% drop.
Everyone needs to zoom out and see the YTD which is on this chart here.
28% gain!
We are fine.
Even if we give back another 18%, a 10% year is solid for the… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Investing With Brandon (@Invest_Brandon)
3:00 PM • Dec 31, 2024
Fear & Greed Index For Today👇
28 yesterday & 28 Today.
Stocks continue to fall and this was much needed.
THIS IS HEALTHY! MARKET CAN’T GO UP EVERY DAY!
Zoom out and look at the returns of the last few years.
I feel that we are closer to 55 vs what this says.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
Be fearful when others are greedy.
Today’s Economic Updates👇
30 year fixed mortgage rate drops to 7.20% today vs 7.21% yesterday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.57% today, vs 4.53% yesterday.
2 year treasury bond yield flat at 4.24% today, vs 4.24% yesterday.
2024 Recap!👇
Overall Market👇
In 2024, the stock market experienced significant growth, with the S&P 500 rising by 23% and achieving 57 record closes, marking the best two-year performance since 1997-1998.
Tech & AI Dominate👇
The Nasdaq pumped 25% and was largely driven by AI hype and robust economic growth.
I feel we are at the beginning phases of the AI revolution and volatility should be expected in the years coming.
Technology stocks like the "Magnificent Seven"—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla—played a HUGE role in this rally.
Nvidia's market value soared to $3 trillion, proving its leadership in AI technology and the revenue/earnings growth prove it.
Nvidia has proved to be one of the key companies to benefit from the AI wave. This chart shows the crazy earnings growth.
Tesla👇
Tesla's valuation also rebounded, surpassing the $1 trillion mark on the back of the Robotaxi network being closer than some expected and the Trump/Elon Bromance.
The company can potentially change the world, but you need to be patient.
Rome was not built in a day.
Federal Reserve👇
The Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate cuts totaling 100 basis points throughout the year, contributing to market liquidity and investor confidence.
Despite these cuts, bond markets faced challenges, with rising yields impacting returns.
This is largely because the market is not convinced inflation is defeated and the fed will have to stay higher for longer on rates.
RATES ARE GRAVITY ON THE STOCK MARKET!
This is the last two cycles or rate hikes and cuts. This cycle went from 5.5% to 4.5% so far
Trump Wins👇
The re-election of President Donald Trump in November further boosted investor sentiment, with expectations of tax cuts and deregulation.
This political development spurred increased market risk-taking and almost meme ish like rally of certain stocks being totally disconnected from the fundamentals.
Crypto friendly Trump helped push Bitcoin to $100,000 and gold prices increased by over 26%, driven by global conflicts, economic uncertainties, and valuation concerns for the stock market.
YTD chart of BTC. Notice the pump once the election results were decided in November.
Valuation Concerns👇
Despite these gains, concerns emerged about market overvaluation, with high price-to-earnings ratios prompting caution among investors, including myself.
I have been saying for the last few months I think we are lofty and now the market may be correcting / reverting to the mean.
The two most important things that matters in the long run for stocks is the earnings of the companies and interest rates.
I am positioned to capitalize on upside and downside in 2025.
TTM PE ratio chart of the SP500. You can see we are high on a trailing basis, but looking forward we are expecting massive earnings growth and this will actually lower the PE assuming stocks stay flat. Time will tell how this plays out.
2025 Outlook👇
Looking ahead to 2025, I am cautiously optimistic, considering potential challenges such as rising treasury yields, tariffs, and the need for companies to “grow” into their valuations.
The market has high expectations priced in.
If the expectations are met, the market will do good.
If the expectations are missed, the market will correct down.
I expect a return of -20% to +10% for 2025.
So What Can I Do Now?👇
I will continue to find deals and use options to magnify my returns on high confidence plays.
REMEMBER! We just had an amazing rally.
It is ok to give some back.
Nobody knows the top.
Nobody knows the bottom.
THE KEY IS TO EDUCATE YOURSELF AND LEARN HOW TO WIN AND BULL AND BEAR MARKETS LIKE ME!
THE BEAR MARKET IN 2022 MADE ME MILLIONS!
THE BULL MARKET IN 2023 AND 2024 MADE ME MILLIONS!
Read the books I have listed in my discord, or if you really want to take it to the next level, DO MY COURSE.
Link below for 60% off.
Final Comments On Today👇
Remember, as QUALITY stocks fall, they get cheaper and safer.
The high PE stocks fall harder in times like this.
Keep your emotions in check.
I am doing this👇
Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.
When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains
Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!
👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025
(updated daily)
QQQ - $565
VOO - $575
IWM - $240
SOXX - $240
TSLA - $400
NVDA - $190
AAPL - $250
PLTR - $60
AMZN - $245
GOOG - $205
MSFT - $460
JPM - $260
👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030
QQQ - $750
VOO - $800
SOXX - $400
TSLA - $1,200
NVDA - $650
AAPL - $375
AMZN - $450
MSFT - $850
(of course a lot of these will split, but this is non split adjusted)
👇My Favorite New Trades 👇
I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.
These are in order from least risky to most risky!
VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year min hold duration
QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration
SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration
TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year minimum hold duration
NVDA - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration
AMZN - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration
NVDA - Sell Puts - 1 year duration -Strike of $115
SOXX - Sell Puts - 2 Year Duration - Strike $180
GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $160
TSLA - Sell Calls - 1 week duration - Strike $455
PLTR- Sell Calls - 2 week duration - Strike Price $95
MSTR - Sell calls - 1 week duration - Strike $90 out of the money.
(Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, link below)
👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇
(updated daily)
I SMOKED THE MARKET AGAIN THIS YEAR! +83% YTD
CONGRATS TO ALL COURSE MEMBERS AND PREMIUM DISCORD MEMBERS!
I started this year at $506,110. Currently $927,796. This is the power of doing stocks and options the right way, but I do expect more volatility. I am being very cautious with options right now. I consider this account to be worth around $750k for the true intrinsic value, not $900k+. This means I wouldn’t be surprised if we take a dip!
👇Yearly Trading Account Value
December 2018 - $0
December 2019 - $45,251
December 2020 - $150,191
December 2021 - $267,524
December 2022- $290,315
December 2023 - $506,223
December 2024 - $927,796 (in progress)
👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇
Me = Blue, Black = Nasdaq, Orange = SP500