Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

Hey guys!

I will be sending out my Alpha Report for FREE every day the market is open! I always want to create more value for you guys and this report is only going to get better! Enjoy!

-Brandon

Today’s Heat Map👇

Today’s Biggest Winners/Losers👇

Nasdaq Biggest Winners✅

Nasdaq Biggest Losers❌

Fear & Greed Index For Today👇

• 52 yesterday & 34 Today.

• The market dipped today and sent us to the fear category.

• I feel this is being a little generous and we are closer to 55 on this scale.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Today’s Economic Updates👇

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.97% today versus 6.98% yesterday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.51% vs 4.39% yesterday.

• Today we got a 25bps interest rate cut and the fed signaled roughly 2 more 25bps cuts for 2025.

Market “Crash” Breakdown

• Today everything took a dip after Jerome Powell at the fed cut interest rates by 25bps.

• That was no surprise to the markets, but the real surprise was in his hawkish tone regarding future interest rate cuts.

• The market was expecting 3-4 cuts of 25bps next year but now only 2 cuts of 25bps are being expected.

• So now the market is “pricing in” the lower rate cut expectations.

• To be honest, having 0.5% less cuts in 2025 is not a big deal in my opinion.

• Yea we want more cuts, but more cuts would indicate a weak economy.

• We are expecting less cuts cause the economy is strong! Keep that in mind!

J Pows Comments During The Press Conference👇

• Risks are in balance for inflation vs strength of economy. (implies we are close to neutral rate)

• Today's cut was a “close call” implying they almost didn’t cut.

• Slower expected cuts cause growth is stronger vs expected and unemployment is lower and inflation is a little higher vs expected.

• Need more progress on inflation to be confident in more cuts

• Forecasters keep calling for a slowdown in growth and it’s not happening. Growth is strong and the outlook is bright. (In other words “experts” are idiots)

• Confident inflation will continue to fall

• Might take another year or two to get to 2% inflation target

• Will NOT add bitcoin to balance sheet

• Very optimistic about the economy for 2025

• Inflation progress is good but it’s a little slower vs expected.

• Will not settle for anything higher than 2% for inflation

• Rate hike next year is unlikely

So Here Is My Take👇

• So as I have said a MILLION times, rates are gravity.

• Yea we just got a cut but fed signaled less cuts going forward.

• So now the market is “pricing in” less rate cuts going forward.

• The fed neutral rate was increased from 2.9% to 3.1% which implies a slightly higher interest rate is needed to achieve the 2% inflation target.

• Remember what I said many times before, we would much rather have a strong economy with slightly higher interest rates versus a crappy economy with low interest rates.

• Right now the economy is strong. So overall I am happy with what is going on.

• Roughly two more 25 BPS cuts are expected for 2025, so that will bring us down to the upper 3% range for the federal funds interest rate.

• Now the stock market is pricing in less cuts going forward which means that bonds are going to have slightly higher interest rate yields and that competes with stocks which means stock valuations (PEs) need to be brought back into check.

• So overall this was as expected and it doesn’t need to be blown out of proportion. The economy is strong, rates are trending lower but just a little bit slower than expected.

• Stay the course!!

Rate Cut Expectations For The Next Few Meetings👇

Before Fed Today👇

• Dec 18, 2024 - 95% chance we are at 4.25% (implies 0.25% cut)

• Jan 29, 2025 - 80% chance we are at 4.25% (implies a pause)

• Mar 19, 2025 - 50% chance we are at 4% (implies potential cut)

After Fed Today👇

• Dec 18, 2024 - 100% chance we are at 4.25% (got the cut today)

• Jan 29, 2025 - 91% chance we are at 4.25% (implies a pause)

• Mar 19, 2025 - 56% chance we are at 4.25% (implies potential pause)

Current Random Thoughts Inside My Head Now👇

• People think they are “smart” buying the dip today.

• Literally the market is down 3%… YTD QQQ is up 28%

• Zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

• Here is a 5 year chart of QQQ. What dip?

• The reason why I implied it was dumb to think you are smart buying a 3% dip is because what if the market is 20% over valued.

• Now you just bought at 17% over valued. Yea it helps, but it’s not a needle mover.

• Earnings are what moves a stock in the long run. Period.

• We are a little lofty now and I have been saying that for a few months honestly.

• Go back and watch my YouTube videos or other Alpha reports. You’ll see what I said.

• People think the stock market can go up every day and that is 100% not realistic.

• Even on a 3 year basis, the market can be red every year.

• The key is to make high margin of safety plays!

• Not PLTR, SOFI, CELH, TSLA, or whatever other stock has been mooning.

• I talk about the rubber band analogy a lot in my course and it just played out today.

• I got so many DMs from people that lost thousands today and I say, did you do my course… Of course they didn’t. Cause if they did, they would be positioned the right way!

• Spend some time educating yourself so you know what to do in times like this.

• Click my “Learn To Invest Like me HERE” link below to get 60% off my course right now!

Final Comments On Today👇

• The market took a healthy dip today and was much needed!

• I see us at 10% over valued so I am being cautious, which is what I have been saying for months.

• Less cuts going forward got priced in today.

• Remember, as stocks fall, they get cheaper and safer.

• The high PE stocks fall harder in times like this.

• Keep your emotions in check.

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2025

• QQQ - $530

• VOO - $580

• IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $390

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $240

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $240

• GOOG - $195

• MSFT - $440

• JPM - $275

👇Price Targets For End Of Year 2030

• QQQ - $750

• VOO - $800

• SOXX - $400

• TSLA - $1,200

• NVDA - $650

• AAPL - $ 375

• AMZN - $450

• MSFT - $850

  (of course a lot of these will split, but this is non split adjusted)

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

These are in order from least risky to most risky!

• VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year minimum hold duration

• NVDA - DCA Shares - 2 year minimum hold duration

• AMZN - DCA Shares - 2 year minimum hold duration

• NVDA - Sell Puts - 1 year duration -Strike of $110

• GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $165

• TSLA - Sell Calls - 1 week duration - Strike $500

• PLTR- Sell Calls - 2 week duration - Strike Price $90

• MSTR - Sell calls - 1 week duration - Strike $100 out of the money.

(Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, link below)

👇Current Value of My Trading Account👇

(updated daily)

👇Yearly Trading Account Value

• December 2018 - $0

• December 2019 - $45,251

• December 2020 - $150,191

• December 2021 - $267,524

• December 2022- $290,315

• December 2023 - $506,223

• December 2024 - $936,391 (in progress)

If you wanna learn to invest in a low risk way that beats the market in the long run, click this link here👇

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

👇Check Out My Links👇