• Current read is 65 on the fear greed index vs 64 last week.

• Market is at ATHs & a little greedy right now. Doesn’t mean BUBBLE! But don’t be surprised if we are volatile from here.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be cautious when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.41% Today, vs 6.55% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield increased to 4.68% Today, vs 4.64% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield decreased to 4.17% Today, vs 4.19% last week.

• Mortgage rates and treasuries stayed pretty flat this week as we got better than expected inflation data & slightly softer than expected economic data.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields INCREASE, stocks become LESS attractive because bond yields go UP which makes the risk free bond look MORE attractive.

Hope everyone had a good week!

So even though stocks are basically at ATHs, the market is still dealing with a lot right now. Interest rates, inflation, AI spending, the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, earnings, consumer spending, and everything else people want to worry about on a daily basis.

So yes, I expect volatility…

But when I zoom out and look at the things that actually matter, I still think the overall setup is pretty decent.

& hey… volatility is opportunity to scoop up elite companies when they are on sale & use options when it makes sense!

The bulk of Q2 earnings are now behind us & honestly it was pretty darn good. I went through hundreds of earnings reports & earnings calls to understand the companies & spot trends/opportunities.

Here is overall what I found.

The economy is okay. Earnings growth is strong. Valuations are basically around fair value. Interest rates are not too bad, & the market has backed away from pricing in some of the more aggressive rate hike expectations we were seeing before. On top of that, Many many CEOs are painting a bullish perspective on Ai despite what you may see online. Not saying there will not be pockets of bubbles & volatility. There will be and currently is. But on balance Ai is overall bullish is my thesis.

& yea… Michael Burry has been blowing up online for all his crazy bets against many companies. He fear mungers into believing him then they subscript to his newsletter where he makes about $10m a MONTH! So if you look at his incentive structure, you can se this behavior and the agendas behind his content. To promote fear all at the same time his following has been getting destroyed…

The market overall based on the totality of the data is basically at fair value right now.

Saying the nasdaq is a bubble when the forward PE now is 22 is kinda crazy when it was 100 in 1999… Nowhere close.

I am not saying everything is perfect… It’s not. But what I am saying is major opportunities are out there and the next few years in the market can change a lot of lives if played correctly.

So yea… lots of noise out there right now, but the plan remains the same.
Capitalize on deals and keep emotions/ratios in check to be fine in all volatility. Because it’s coming… & the prepared investor sees that as opportunity, not a problem.

To cover something else real fast…

One analogy I used this week that I think makes investing really simple is thinking about your portfolio like a fantasy football team.

Your goal is to put the best players on the field.

If you thought yesterday that you had the best players on your team, did all of them suddenly become terrible today because the market dropped 1%?

Probably not.

Maybe one of your players gets hurt. Maybe the fundamentals of a company change. Maybe the valuation gets ridiculous and there is clearly a better opportunity somewhere else.

Those are reasons to make changes.

But constantly swapping investments around just because you feel like you need to do something usually doesn’t make your team better.

That is one of the biggest mistakes I see investors make… especially right now is they never actually give anything enough time to work.

A good company might report great numbers and the stock still goes down.

A stock might trade sideways for months while earnings continue growing underneath it.

The market might pull back 5% and everyone suddenly thinks the entire investing thesis from 2 weeks ago is dead.

That is not how long term investing works.
Sometimes doing nothing is the move.

Obviously we should constantly evaluate what we own and ask ourselves if there is something better.

But there needs to actually be something better.
Making a trade just to make a trade accomplishes nothing.
So in this environment we are in where Ai is changing the world & everyone wants instant gratification, it’s critical to stay focused on the main goal… Buying great companies at good prices & only using options to magnify ultra compelling setups.

We are now winding down Q2 earnings & overall it has been solid. I broke down DOZENS of companies in deep detail in discord and all are plotted on the stock sheet (my live watchlist of most compelling setups)

We still have nvidia to report in about 2 weeks & that of course is the elephant in the room. Because of the data we got so far, it’s likely Nividia reports good. Doesn’t mean stock goes up right away, but likely they confirm the Ai buildout is not going anywhere & like accelerating believe it or now.

So where does that leave us?

Basically the same place I’ve been.
I’m bullish long term.
I’m expecting volatility short term.
I don’t think the market is extremely cheap, but I also don’t think it is extremely expensive.

And I think investors who stay patient, level headed, and focused on the actual fundamentals are going to have a much easier time navigating this than people refreshing their brokerage account 38 times a day. There are MANY huge opportunities right now & we have been talking about this in discord recently. The prepared, calculated, level headed investor like I said will likely be rewarded.

There is always going to be something to worry about.
The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty.
The goal is to make good decisions despite it.

We’ll keep watching the data, watching earnings, watching valuations, and looking for opportunities as they show up & will share everything in real time in Discord!

So yes… PATIENCE!

See you next week!
- Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For August 17 - August 21
(all times in pst)

Monday August 17
See how market digests Iran "agreement" with Oman

Tuesday August 18
5:30a Housing Starts for July
5:30a Import Prices for July
6:15a Industrial Production for July
Home Depot Earnings (premarket)

Wednesday August 19
11a Fed Minutes for July Meeting
Target Earnings (premarket)
Lowes Earnings (premarket)
TJ Max Earnings (premarket)

Thursday August 20
5:30a Initial/continued Jobless Claims
Walmart Earnings (premarket)
Baba Earnings (premarket)
Deere & Company Earnings (premarket)
Ross Earnings (post market)

Friday August 21
6:45a Services PMI
6:45a Manufacturing PMI

Everything will be broken down in real time in Discord!