Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

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Major News Today:

• I sent out today’s report a little early cause i’m going into meetings for the next few hours.

• Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary is BIG.

• Nvidia Dips.

• Price vs Value for a company.

• Watchlist changes.

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate falls slightly to 6.96% from 7.08% Friday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.26% from 4.41% Friday

  (5 minute read)

Fear & Greed Index For Today

• 61 Friday & 61 today.

• Market didn’t move much today and that’s why the index is unchanged.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Million Dollar Lesson:

While you are watching Netflix, someone else is grinding to get an edge on the next big investment or business.

Your lack of hustle and ambition to get rich is the difference between you and your goals.

Get after it!

Trumps Treasury Pick Is BIG

• Trump picks hedge fund manager Scott Bessent to be the new Treasury Secretary.

• Janet Yellen (current treasury secretary) will be replaced by him.

  So why does this actually matter?

• The treasury secretary advises the president on economic and fiscal things like spending and taxes.

• I expect Elon’s new DOGE (department of government efficiency) to work with the new treasury secretary on many things to optimize the U.S. spending.

• It’s expected Scott will urge Trump to consider a softer approach to tariffs, strip back regulation to boost economic growth and target a reduction in deficit spending.

• The main thing that matters for me is the tariffs and taxes.

• Trump raised tariffs his last term and started the “trade war” which the stock market was not happy about.

• I do think valuations right now are a little high and when you add uncertainty of tariffs into that mix, it's a good setup for stocks to take a dip.

• Not that Scott is the secretary, we would expect trump to have an easier stance on tariffs which is bullish for the markets and an extreme trade was is less likely now.

• Don’t forget - I do feel the market is a little expensive now, so just because things are looking great now, doesn’t mean it has to stay like this. But of course this news is very welcomed by me and many other investors.

Nvidia Takes A Dip

• Nvidia took a dip today and this is totally fine

• In my opinion, the future is AI. You either adopt, or your competition will, and you’ll get crushed.

• Nvidia is getting ready to scale the Blackwell chip and this is going to push the limits for what is possible with Ai.

• SMCI is a key player in this and I did make a decent sized play on it as described in the issues leading up to this one. Check those ones out!

• BUT, what is the future for NVIDIA?

• Lets break down the numbers.

• Currently trading at $137/share

• Q3 25 EPS: $0.81

• Q2 25 EPS: $0.68

• Q1 25 EPS: $0.61

• Q4 24 EPS: $0.51

• Total TTM EPS: $2.61

• 137/2.61 = 52 PE trailing.

• EPS same quarter last year was $0.40 vs $0.81 now. That is 102% YoY earnings growth

• Revenue same quarter last year was $18.12b vs $35.08b now. That's 93% YoY revenue increase

• The stock is up 188% in the last year.

• I am a very strong believer that AI is the future.

• I think NVIDIA is positioned to capitalize on this.

• Is a PE ratio of 52 lofty? Not really when you are growing at triple digits YoY

• BUTTTT, how sustainable is growing 100% per year? NOT AT ALL!

• Eventually the growth will slow, when will that be? Probably very soon.

• But does "slowing growth" matter? Yea… but it is expected

• Maybe this year its 100%, next year 90, then 80, then 70, ect...

• One thing is for sure, there is not much competition right now.

• This is a company that has pricing power and a solid moat.

• I am super bullish NVDA for the long run

• I will prob be selling puts on it.

• Selling puts gives more margin of safety vs just buying calls.

  THIS IS MY INTRINSIC VALUE CALCULATOR FOR NVDA.

  CLICK THE LINK BELOW TO GET IT👇

  

Brandons Watch List:

(Updated Daily)

👇My Price Targets For End Of Year 2025👇

• QQQ - $530

• VOO - $580

•  IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $380

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $240

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $240

• GOOG - $195

• SMCI - $105

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

• QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year minimum hold duration

• PLTR - Buy Puts - 3 Month Duration - Strike Price $60

• GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $150

• NVDA - Buy & hold for 2+ yrs & sell 1 year puts at a strike of $120

• AMZN - Buy shares on a dip and hold for 2+ yrs

• SMCI - Buy calls - 5 month duration - $30 strike.

(Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, link below)

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

Current Value of My Trading Account:

• I think we are about 10% over valued as a whole, so if the market takes a dip, that’s 100% normal. (reversion to the mean)

• So I consider the intrinsic value of my trading account to be somewhere around $800k ish, not $905,709

  

Final Comments:

• Trumps pick for Treasury Secretary is good for the markets.

• SMCI calls are printing money. Congrats to everyone on that play!

• NVDA is trading very close to intrinsic value. I like it.

• Companies will be forced to invest in AI. If they don’t the competition will push them out of the marketplace.

• I see the market as 10% ish over valued. (a dip is ok and normal if it comes)

• Keep your emotions in check on pumps and dumps.

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Check Out My Links Below👇