• Current read is 67 on the fear greed index vs 67 last week.

• Market is still greedy which means to be cautious! We just caught a HUGE move & you need to ensure ratios are in check & prepared for volatility (as always)

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.20% Today, vs 6.35% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield fell to 4.36% Today, vs 4.37% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield fell to 3.87% Today, vs 3.88% last week.

• Bond yields didn’t do much this week!

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, May 11, 2026

This past week, the market continued to rip higher, and honestly, this rally has been much sharper than expected.

The Nasdaq has moved up roughly 27% in about 1 month off the lows. That is not normal. That is not something you should expect to see all the time. In my opinion, this is one of the fastest and sharpest rallies we will see in a very long time.

Now, does that mean the market is in a bubble?
I do not think so.
But I do think the market is starting to get a little extended again.

Right now, I would say the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are roughly 5% to 10% overvalued. Not crazy. Not extreme. Not dot com bubble level. But also not cheap anymore.

And when the market runs this hard, this fast, it makes sense to start being a little bit more careful. Not panic. Not sell everything. Not go 100% cash. Just get your ratios in check.

That is the big thing right now.

The people who get hurt in the stock market are usually the people who let emotions make every decision for them. When the market is falling, they panic. When the market is ripping, they FOMO. Then they repeat that cycle over and over again and wonder why they never make money.

You have to be able to stay level headed.

When the market was falling, I was not panicking because earnings were still strong and valuations were getting more attractive. Now that the market has ripped higher, I am not getting euphoric either.

I continue to look at the same 4 things I always look at.
(this is what actually moves the needle)
1. Valuations.
2. Earnings per share growth.
3. The economy.
4. Interest rates.

That is really what matters & things look overall good except for valuations.
based on this data, I allocate how it makes sense.

This past week, the jobs report came in pretty solid. The unemployment rate is still around 4.3%, which is historically very healthy. Wages are growing around 3.6% year over year, which is also fine. It’s not too hot, and it is not showing some crazy weakness either.

The labor market, in my opinion, is basically neutral right now.

And I know some people will say, “Well, if the economy is still strong, we are not going to get rate cuts.”

Okay…

Would you rather have a healthy economy with interest rates around 3.5%, or a broken economy with 0% rates?

I would rather have the healthy economy.

Low rates are not automatically bullish if the reason rates are low is because the economy is falling apart.

So overall, the jobs data was fine. It does not scream recession. It does not scream overheating. It just says things are still okay.

Now, the bigger reason the market has been able to keep pushing higher is earnings.

S&P 500 earnings have been very strong. About 89% of companies have already reported Q1 numbers, and the results have been very good. Around 84% beat EPS expectations, 80% beat revenue expectations, and year over year earnings growth is around 27.7%.

That is huge!

And that is the main reason I do not think this is some crazy bubble.

When earnings are growing that fast, share prices should go up. That is how the stock market works over the long term. Stocks follow profits.

Now, I do not expect 27% earnings growth to last forever. That is way above normal. Long term, the S&P 500 usually grows earnings closer to 8% to 10% per year. So eventually, this will normalize.

But for right now, earnings are strong, the economy is okay, and that gives the market a reason to be elevated.

The issue is valuation.

The forward P/E ratio on the S&P 500 is around 21 right now. The 10 year average is closer to 19. So yes, the market is more expensive than normal, but it is not insane.

That is why I would call this market slightly overvalued, not a bubble.

A market can be 5% to 10% expensive and still keep grinding higher if earnings keep going up. But once valuations get stretched, the upside gets a little less attractive and the downside risk gets a little bigger.

That is why I have done a little bit of de risking.
Just a little more conservative than I was when the market was cheaper.

That is how I think about risk management. When the market is cheaper, I am more willing to take risk. When the market runs hard and valuations get less attractive, I start pulling risk back a little bit.

Most retail investors do the opposite.
They want the most risk after the market already ran.
Then they want no risk after the market already fell.

That is backwards…

The goal is not to perfectly time every top and bottom. Nobody does that. The goal is to have a portfolio that can win either way.

If the market keeps going higher, I still want to participate & beat the market on the upside.
If the market pulls back, I want to have the ability to capitalize and be just fine in any deep crash.

This 27% move in 1 month is not normal. It is very possible we give some of it back. And if we do, that is okay. Volatility is part of the game.

We have seen this over and over again.
Japan carry trade fears.
Tariff fears.
Oil fears.
Iran fears.
Inflation fears.
Jobs data fears.
There is always something.

The key is not to react emotionally to every headline. The key is to understand whether the fundamentals are actually changing.

Right now, the fundamentals are still pretty good.
Earnings are strong.
The labor market is fine.
The economy is holding up.
Valuations are a little high.

So my overall view is simple… I am still bullish long term, but more cautious short term.

This is not the time to get greedy and act like stocks can only go up. It is also not the time to panic and act like the whole market is about to collapse.

This is the time to check your ratios.
Make sure you are not overexposed.
Make sure you could mentally and financially handle a 20% or even 30%+ pullback.

Make sure you are not using too much risk just because the last 1 month has been easy. The stock market can humble people VERY fast.

When prices go up, people think they are geniuses. When prices go down, they realize they were just overleveraged.

Going into next week, the biggest things I am watching are CPI, PPI, retail sales, jobless claims, and import prices.

CPI and PPI will matter because inflation is still one of the biggest things the market is watching. If inflation comes in hot, especially with oil and tariff related pressure, the market could start worrying again about rates staying higher for longer.

Retail sales will give us a better idea of how strong the consumer still is.

Jobless claims will continue giving us a weekly pulse on the labor market.

And import prices will help show whether we are importing inflation or getting some relief from lower prices overseas.

So overall, my message is this.
The market is not cheap anymore.
But it is also not some crazy bubble.
Earnings are strong enough to justify a lot of the move, but after a rally this sharp, it makes sense to be a little more careful.

Stay invested.
Stay patient.
Keep your ratios in check.
Do not FOMO.
Do not panic.

The goal is to beat the SP500 ROI in the long term. If you aren’t doing that, unfortunately you are wasting your time…

Onward and upward!

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth and health for you and your family!

-Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For May 11-May 15:
(all times in pst)

Monday May 11:
See how market responds to Iran situation
Circle Earnings (pre market)
Hims Earnings (post market)
7a Existing home sales

Tuesday May 12:
D-Wave Earnings (pre market)
JD Earnings (pre market)
OKLO Earnings (post market)
5:30a CPI inflation data

Wednesday May 13:
NBIS Earnings (pre market)
Alibaba Earnings (pre market)
Cisco Earnings (post market)
5:30a PPI inflation data

Thursday May 14:
Applied Materials Earnings (post market)
5:30a Initial jobless claims
5:30a Retail sales
5:30a Import price index

Friday May 15:
Nothing too important!

Everything will be covered in real time in Discord!