• Current read is 67 on the fear greed index vs 66 last week.

• Market is still greedy which means to be cautious! We just caught a HUGE move & you need to ensure ratios are in check & prepared for volatility (as always)

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.35% Today, vs 6.2% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield increased to 4.37% Today, vs 4.30% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield increased to 3.88% Today, vs 3.78% last week.

• Bond yields increased as the Iran situation has not resolved yet. Investors see this as oil up, inflation up, rates up to combat inflation. I think inflation will reverse lower in the coming quarters and yields will slowly fall.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, May 4, 2026

What’s up everybody,

This week was a big reminder of why we follow the data and not emotions.

The market has been ripping. The Nasdaq made a huge move off the lows, up roughly 21% in just a few weeks. My Schwab account went from below $1.1M to above $1.4M during this move. That is a massive rebound to capture.

But this is where expectations need to come back down to earth.

The market is not going to keep moving like this forever. We are going to get volatility. We are going to get oil headlines, Iran headlines, tariff headlines, trade war headlines, and random stuff nobody is thinking about right now. That is just how the market works.

The key is not to panic when it happens. The key is to know what you own, why you own it, and make sure your ratios are in check.

Right now, I would call the market a little hot. Not a bubble. Not crazy. Just a little expensive. Based on the totality of the data, I would say the S&P 500 is probably around 5% overvalued. The Nasdaq is probably somewhere around 5% to 10% overvalued, but I lean closer to 5%.

That does not mean we need to crash. It just means if the market dropped 5% on a bad headline, that should not shock anyone. The market just ran hard. A small giveback would be completely normal.

The bigger point is that profit growth is extremely strong right now. FactSet showed Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth around 27% YoY. That is insane. That is not normal profit growth. That is very strong.

This is why the rally is more justified than people think.

People look at the market going up and say it makes no sense. But it does make sense when profits are exploding higher. Stocks follow earnings over the long term. If companies grow profits, stock prices usually follow. If the S&P 500 grows earnings, the index usually follows.

That is why I kept saying during the drawdown that people were getting too emotional. People were panicking, getting bearish, and buying puts near the bottom.

Most companies were fine. The economy was not frozen. Oil was not destroying every company. Earnings were still coming in strong.

Now we are seeing the result.

The market ripped because profits were way better than the panic suggested.

That does not mean there is no risk. There is always risk. The market is not cheap. The S&P 500 forward P/E is around 21, which is above the 5 year and 10 year averages. But earnings growth is also above average. The economy is okay. Rates are not destroying everything. So for now, the valuation can work as long as earnings keep going up and to the right.

If profit growth slows down, this market can fall. That is why I break down so many companies in Discord. I want to see what they are earning, how they are guiding, what management is saying, and what is happening under the hood. If EPS growth stays strong, the market can keep working. If EPS growth cracks, we have to adjust.

Right now, I do not see a profit collapse. If I do, I will tell you. I have no agenda besides making money and protecting capital.

On AI spending, a lot of people are worried about hyperscalers spending massive amounts of money on chips and data centers. That is fair. These are real costs. But the important part is how those costs flow through earnings.

If a company spends $1M on chips, they usually do not expense that full $1M immediately. They depreciate it over the useful life of the asset. So if the useful life is 4 years, that expense gets spread out over 4 years. If the useful life is 8 years, the yearly expense is lower, which helps earnings.

This matters because demand for older Nvidia chips like H100s is still strong. If older chips are still useful, then maybe these chips are not becoming worthless as fast as people feared. That could allow companies to stretch depreciation schedules longer over time.

Now, do not twist that into saying there is no cost. There is a tidal wave of depreciation coming from all this AI infrastructure spending. It is already happening. But if the useful life of the chips is longer than people thought, that is a bullish tailwind for earnings.

That is why this AI cycle is not as simple as “capex bad.” The real question is whether the spending creates enough future revenue and profit to justify it. So far, the market is saying yes, but we still have to watch it.

On tariffs and trade war headlines, Trump talked about a 25% tariff on the EU for not complying with trade deals. Could that create volatility? Yes. Does that permanently destroy the earnings power of the best companies in the S&P 500? Probably not.

That is how I think about this stuff. I do not ignore it, but I also do not act like every scary headline is the end of the world. A lot of these headlines create temporary panic. They create volatility. Then eventually pressure builds, deals get made, or the market moves on.

So yes, be aware of it. No, I do not think it changes the long term thesis right now.

In my portfolio, I did some more derisking. That does not mean I am bearish. It does not mean I hate Nvidia. It does not mean I hate QQQ. It simply means the market made a huge move, valuations are a little less attractive, and I want to lower some risk.

When you build a portfolio the right way, trimming should be hard. You should like what you own. But when risk goes up and reward goes down, you have to be willing to trim.

For me, I am not really trimming shares. I am mostly trimming options because options are higher risk. Shares are simple. You buy a good company, profits grow, and over time the stock usually follows. Options add expiration dates, theta, timing, direction, and volatility. That means the chance of loss is higher.

You do not always need to sell puts. You do not always need to have options. If the setup is not compelling, do not force it.

Options are not the strategy. Options are a tool.

The strategy is buying good companies for less than they are worth and letting profit growth do the heavy lifting. Options just magnify what you already believe. Buying shares is like using a normal hammer. Selling puts is like using a bigger hammer. Buying calls is like using a giant hammer. If you hit the nail perfectly, great. But if you hit your finger, it is going to hurt a lot more.

That is how options work.

On the economy, things still look okay. The economic scorecard is around 150 out of 200 on Discord, and I am not seeing anything urgent that makes me worried right now.

Next week we get job openings, ADP employment, productivity data, and the jobs report. The labor market still looks fine based on jobless claims, but we will keep watching it. If the labor market starts cracking, that matters. If services starts cracking, that matters. If earnings guidance starts cracking, that really matters.

Right now, I am not seeing that.

On earnings, this past week was strong overall. Next week we have Palantir, PayPal, SMCI, AMD, Strategy, Arista, ARM, AppLovin, Uber, Disney, and a few others. Then later in the month we get Nvidia, which is obviously the big one for the AI trade.

So here is the main takeaway

The market made a huge move. Profit growth is very strong. Valuations are a little hot. The economy is still okay. Rates are manageable. I am still bullish long term, but short term I expect bumps.

If I had to put a number on the bull bear scale right now, I would probably be around 6.8 out of 10. Not full bull. Not bear. Cautiously bullish because earnings have been strong enough to justify a lot of this rally.

The mistake people make is thinking they need to trade every move. More trades does not equal more money. Most people who trade constantly do not outperform. They just create more chances to make emotional mistakes.

The real money is made by buying good assets for less than they are worth, making sure the profit growth is there, and sitting through volatility.

That is Buffett. That is Munger. That applies to stocks, real estate, businesses, Pokemon cards, whatever. Buy something good for less than it is worth. Make sure it can grow. Do not blow yourself up. Survive long enough to let compounding work.

That is why I still lean heavily on the base portfolio with VOO and QQQ. That is my insurance against being wrong on individual companies. It is hard to know exactly which company will win over 10 or 20 years, so I want exposure to all the winners through the indices.

Then I can use individual stocks and options around the edges when the setup is compelling.

Investing is about survival first. It is not about maximizing ROI in 1 year. The goal is to beat the market by a fair margin over the long term while taking the least amount of dumb risk possible.

So overall, I am very bullish long term. Short term, expect volatility. AI will be bumpy. Tariffs will be bumpy. Oil will be bumpy. Earnings will move stocks.

But the data right now is still good.
Profit growth is strong.
The market is not cheap, but it is not a bubble.

Keep your ratios in check.
Do not panic over normal volatility.
Do not force trades.

And remember, options are just a tool. The real strategy is owning great assets at good prices and letting earnings growth carry the portfolio over time.

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth and health for you and your family!

-Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For May 4-May 8:
(all times in pst)

Monday May 4:
See how market responds to Iran situation
Palantir Earnings (post market)

Tuesday May 5:
5:30a Trade Balance
7a Job openings
7a ISM services
7a New home sales
Paypal Earnings (pre market)
SMCI Earnings (Post market)
AMD Earnings (post market)
Arista Earnings (post market)

Wednesday May 6:
5:15a ADP jobs report
Uber Earnings (pre market(
Disney Earnings (pre market)
Arm Earnings (post market)
IONQ Earnings (postmarket)
Applovin Earnings (post market)

Thursday May 7:
5:30a Initial jobless claims
5:30a Productivity
Mcdonalds Earnings (pre market)
Celsius Earnings (pre market)
Coinbase Earnings (post market)
IREN Earnings (post market)
Coreweave Earnings (post market)

Friday May 8:
5:30a Jobs report

More earnings & more economic data to cover!