Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

You only have to get rich once. Now is your time.

Major News Today:

• Big SMCI Catalyst.

• The future for Tesla.

• Watchlist changes.

• 30 year fixed mortgage climbs slightly to 7.08% from 7.07% yesterday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls slightly to 4.41% from 4.42% yesterday.

  (5 minute read)

Fear & Greed Index For Today

• 58 yesterday & 61 today.

• Market pushed higher today, pushing us to greedy territory.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Million Dollar Lesson:

Make decisions like you're a millionaire.

Work like you're on welfare.

Tesla Is MOONING

• Tesla has been on a runner this year pumping over 62% in the last month!

• I have so many people asking me if it’s too late to buy in.

• I respond the same to every single person with this, how long do you plan to hold the stock for.

• Most people say idk. But I demand an answer for that before I give my answer.

• The majority of people say “idk, I just want to know if it is a buy”

• This has BIG problems!

  

Here is my thought process👇

• NEVER buy into something just cause the share price is going up. Understand exactly what you are buying and at what valuation!

• Tesla is currently at a PE ratio of 141. Let me boggle your brain with this. If you were to buy the entire company of Tesla outright, it would take you 141 years until you break even on that purchase assuming earnings remain unchanged from current levels.

• Are earnings going to stay the same? I personally think they are going to explode higher, but not for a few more years.

• RoboTaxi and Optimus is what the majority of the company is being valued on at these expensive levels.

• Trump and Elon are also besties so that makes investors think regulations will be more lax with approval for robotaxi and Optimus.

Ok so what is my answer…👇

If you can pass both of these tests, it’s ok to buy in my opinion.

1. You must hold the shares for a minimum of 5 years from right now.

2. You must be ok to stomach 60% swings in the share price.

   Short term, it will be bumpy, long term it can be astronomical.

   My 2030 price target is $1,200

The Future For SMCI:

• So SMCI builds server racks for the data centers. This is literally the “shelves” that the Nvidia chips sit on and the racks are designed to keep the chips cool and packed together as tight as possible to maximize space.

• Rumor has it, the current wait time to get a new server rack installed is about 1-2 years. This is good and shows there is demand and pricing power for SMCI.

• Keep this in mind, the Nvidia Blackwell chip has been rumored to be overheating. Guess what, there is now a push to cool these chips with liquid cooled server racks vs air cooled. (most are air cooled now)

• This could be BIG for SMCI. They have a huge backlog for air cooled racks now. Imagine when Blackwell scales and most of the data centers will opt in to the more expensive but better liquid cooled racks. This is great for SMCI!

• I feel the current intrinsic value of SMCI is around $80-$100 per share.

• We are at $33 now. So yea, a lot of juice left in my opinion.

Risks To SMCI👇

• This entire dip from ATH is cause of the accounting issue. That seems to be resolved now/ in the process.

• Of course there is still risk that the books were super cooked and so much fraudulent stuff that they get delisted on Nasdaq, but it’s unlikely.

• Now keep in mind. It’s a volatile stock. It doesn’t have to go straight up. But I feel we are positioned well to capitalize on a lot more upside.

• Of course downside risk is the company gets delisted or the accounting firm pulls out. If the accounting firm pulls out, expect a 40% drop on a day lol

• So this is high risk high reward.

  Click Here To Get My Intrinsic Value Calculator For FREE!

Brandons Watch List:

(Updated Daily)

👇My Price Targets For End Of Year 2025👇

• QQQ - $530

• VOO - $580

•  IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $380

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $240

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $240

• GOOG - $195

• SMCI - $105

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

• QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year minimum hold duration

• PLTR - Buy Puts - 3 Month Duration - Strike Price $60

• GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $150

• NVDA - Buy & hold for 2+ yrs & sell 1 year puts at a strike of $130

• AMZN - Buy shares on a dip and hold for 2+ yrs

• SMCI - Buy calls - 5 month duration - $28 strike.

(Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, link below)

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

Current Value of My Trading Account:

• I think we are about 10% over valued as a whole, so if the market takes a dip, that’s 100% normal. (reversion to the mean)

• So I consider the intrinsic value of my trading account to be somewhere around $800k ish, not $898,945

  

Final Comments:

• SMCI could have a lot more upside from here.

• Tesla has a bright future, but it is expensive in the short term.

• Companies will be forced to invest in AI. If they don’t the competition will push them out of the marketplace.

• I see the market as 10% ish over valued. (a dip is ok and normal if it comes)

• Keep your emotions in check on pumps and dumps.

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Check Out My Links Below👇