• Current read is 66 on the fear greed index vs 71 last week.

• Market is still greedy which means to be cautious! We just caught a HUGE move & you need to ensure ratios are in check & prepared for volatility (as always)

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.2% Today, vs 5.9% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield increased to 4.30% Today, vs 4.25% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield increased to 3.78% Today, vs 3.70% last week.

• Bond yields increased as the Iran situation has not resolved yet. Investors see this as oil up, inflation up, rates up to combat inflation. I think inflation will reverse lower in the coming quarters and yields will slowly fall.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, April 27, 2026

Last Week's Recap: S&P 500 +0.71%, QQQ +2.4%, Oil +8.5%, Gold -1.7%

The market last week took a breather, and that's healthy. The S&P barely moved, the Nasdaq grinded out another 2%, and the Dow gave back a touch. The story underneath was Iran. Oil ripped 8.5% on the week and the VIX popped 7%, both because the more reasonable guy on Iran's negotiating team got pushed out, and the US is now running a real blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Before the blockade, Iran was still moving oil with transponders off and back end deals with China. Now there's basically no oil moving through that strait.

I don't actually care if a deal gets signed. What I care about is oil starting to flow again. And it will. This is costing Iran around $500 million a day. There's too much economic pressure on them to keep this going forever. So I expect this to resolve with time. In the short term, expect more headlines and more chop. The USA is also exporting oil at records so this does have a positive side. Countries will find a way to get their oil for the most part.

Now the bigger picture. We just made one of the sharpest V-shaped recoveries you're ever going to see. From the bottom we're up about 17% in two weeks. I'll be honest, I called for a Nike swoosh, not a V. I did not see the snapback being this violent. But the way I positioned in the dip, leaning higher beta when it was cheap, paid off, and now I'm doing the opposite on the other side (I am allocating a tad more conservative now but overall still bullish the market in long run)

Where we sit now, the S&P is about 5 to 10% above the EPS growth line. Forward P/E is just a hair above 20. That's a teeny bit hot. It's not a bubble, just a little extended. EPS growth is very strong, rates are low, & the economy is ok. That backdrop justifies much of this rebound in stock prices and the valuations. That being said, volatility will continue.

On Q1 earnings, only about 28% of companies have reported, and 88% are beating EPS, 84% beating revenue. 9 out of 10 beats. And most of that guidance was issued before the Iran war started, so they're beating despite the bad backdrop. That tells you something about the strength of the businesses we own.

What I Did In My Account This Week:

When the market was cheap, I wanted my beta higher than the market. I sold more puts and added more exposure. Now the market is less compelling, so I have to do the opposite. I trimmed a little this past week & may continue to do more. The totality of the data dictates how I allocates, not BS short term headlines or emotions.

The framework I want everyone to internalize is the hierarchy of bullishness. Shares are mid-bullish. Selling puts is super bullish. Buying calls is max bullish, 10 out of 10 conviction. Left to right is also the difficulty of making money. Calls are the hardest, sold puts are easier, shares are the easiest. So why would you have max difficulty in your portfolio when the setup isn't max compelling? You wouldn't. Everybody can make money in a bull market. The question is who's still standing when it turns.

What To Watch Next Week:

This is the heaviest earnings week of the entire quarter. Plus we get the Fed on Wednesday and Core PCE on Thursday.

Monday, April 27: Quiet day. We will see how the market reacts to the Iran situation.

Tuesday, April 28: Coke, UPS, Visa, RobinHood, Starbucks, Seagate, & Bloom energy are the big dogs to report earnings. All give us clues about the economy and overall macro picture. I will be breaking most of these down in Discord in detail!

Wednesday, April 29: Sofi, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Qualcomm, & Chipotle will be the big ones. This will be the heaviest day and big tech matters a lot for Ai spending & if we see signs of efficiencies showing up in earnings. Guide on Capex also matters a lot for these companies too cause that will directly impact Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, TSM, ect… DEEP dives will be done in Discord with videos covering most!

Thursday, April 30: Apple will be the big one on Thursday. While I love the company, the valuation is too hot. We will see how they guide & if they strike a major deal to bring real Ai to the iPhone. We shall see! Again, breakdown will be in Discord.

Friday, May 1: Exxon and Chevron report earnings. These companies are benefiting from higher oil prices and we should expect good numbers and good guide. Yes, higher oil does help many companies! While airlines are in pain, Exxon and Chevron are much larger companies so they carry a larger market cap in the SP500 & offset much of the companies that do worse in a high oil price environment.

Final Thoughts:

We just made a big move. Future returns from here are not going to be as good as returns from the bottom. We're a touch over 20 forward P/E, not 18. Take a chill pill and let the market do its thing.

Don't overallocate to high beta speculative stuff right after a move like this. You missed some of it already, and that's fine. Opportunities come in lumps, not in a steady stream. You don't need to force a trade every day. Most days the right move is to do nothing.

Stick to the boring system. Buy good companies for less than what they're worth. Use options to magnify only when the math actually works. Keep your ratios in check. Let EPS do the heavy lifting. We're investors, not speculators.

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth and health for you and your family!

-Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For April 27-May 1:
(all times in pst)

Monday April 27:
See how market responds to Iran situation
Verizon Earnings (pre market)
Domino’s Earnings (pre market)

Tuesday April 28:
6a S&P Case-Shiller home price index
7a Consumer confidence
Coca-Cola (pre market)
UPS (pre market)
GM Earnings (pre market)
Visa Earnings (post market)
Robinhood Earnings (post market)
Starbucks Earnings (post market)
Seagate Earnings (post market)
Bloom Energy (post market)

Wednesday April 29:
5:30a Durable-goods orders
5:30a Housing starts
11a FOMC interest rate decision
11:30a Fed Chair Powell press conference
SoFi Earnings (pre market)
Amazon Earnings (post market)
Microsoft Earnings (post market)
Meta Earnings (post market)
Google Earnings (post market)
Qualcomm Earnings (post market)
Chipotle Earnings (post market)
Carvana Earnings (post market)
Ebay Earnings (post market)

Thursday April 30:
5:30a Initial jobless claims
5:30a GDP
5:30a PCE index
5:30a Personal Income/Spending
Lilly Earnings (pre market)
Mastercard Earnings (pre market)
Caterpillar Earnings (pre market)
Merck Earnings (pre market)
Apple Earnings (post market)
Rivian Earnings (post market)
Sandisk Earnings (post market)

Friday May 1:
7a ISM manufacturing data
Chevron Earnings (pre market)
Exxon Earnings (pre market)

This week will revolve around monitoring Iran + Lots of big dogs report Q1 earnings!