• Current read is 68 on the fear greed index vs 38 last week.

• Big swing this week & market is now in greed category.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.9% Today, vs 6.13% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield fell to 4.25% Today, vs 4.32% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield fell to 3.70% Today, vs 3.80% last week.

• Bond yields decreased on hopes the Iran conflict is close to being resolved & inflation will take a breather.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, April 20, 2026

This Week's Scorecard: 
S&P 500 +4.8% | QQQ +6.4% | Oil -12% | Gold +2.3%

Last Week Recap:

This was one of the sharpest V-shaped recoveries you're going to get. From the bottom to where we sit right now, we're up almost 17% in just a couple weeks. That's a violent, rapid bounce that nobody was really expecting, but that's how the stock market works. You don't have to anticipate these moves to win. We just buy good companies for less than what they're worth, and we use options to magnify when it makes sense.

The big driver this week was Iran. Trump came out and said the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, and there's chatter about a deal getting signed potentially on Sunday. I'm not one bit surprised the strait opened back up. There was always too much incentive to open it. Too many countries need their oil to flow through there. It was never going to stay closed forever like a lot of people were thinking. So stocks ripped, oil cooled off, the VIX fell on the week, and the market's basically pricing in that the worst of this is behind us. Once Iran is in the rearview mirror, mainstream media is going to find something else to worry about. They always do. There's always something out there to be scared of, and it's their job to keep you watching. Tune it out and stick to the plan.

My Schwab account had a really, really big move. It got down somewhere around $1.1 million at the lows, and it's added almost $300,000 in just a few weeks to now over $1.4m. That's the benefit of buying productive assets, staying invested, buying good companies at good prices, and using options when it makes sense. It's also why my beta is sitting higher than the market right now. NASDAQ was up 1.7% today, S&P up 1.5%, and I was up 2.25% on the day. That's what you want when things are undervalued. But as things become less compelling, you want your beta to come back down, because future expected returns aren't as good when you're paying full price or when things are even over valued.

Big picture on valuation. The S&P is sitting maybe 5% to 10% over valued now. That's a teeny bit expensive. It's not a bubble, it's not out of control, it's just a little hot. The forward P/E is just a hair above 20. The thing to keep in mind is forward earnings is going almost vertical right now, which means the index can grind higher and still naturally devalue, because EPS is climbing faster than price. That's exactly what we want to see. We want EPS doing the heavy lifting and price following along behind it. That's how you get a healthier setup for the next leg up.

What To Watch Next Week:

Heavy earnings week. The first real wave of Q1 reports outside of the banks. Here's what I'm paying attention to.

Monday, April 20: Quiet day. No major reports, no major data. Use it to look at your ratios and review your watchlist.

Tuesday, April 21: This is the United Health day for us. UNH reports pre-market I have a little exposure here, so this one matters. Also pre-market we get GE, RTX, MMM, Danaher, and Northrop Grumman. After the close it's Capital One, Chubb, Intuitive Surgical, and United Airlines. On the data side, Retail Sales for the prior month at 8:30 ET. That'll be the first read on whether the consumer is still spending through all this Iran noise. (they likely are)

Wednesday, April 22: Tesla after the close. Tesla is the most speculative thing in my account, so I'm watching how they guide on Robotaxi and Optimus more than the actual EPS print. Also after the close, ServiceNow is the big one for software. Analysts have been getting nervous on software because of the AI fear, but Service Now keeps blowing out the estimates because the recurring revenue just keeps grinding up and to the right. They're a tell on whether the whole software sector deserves the recent beat-down or not. IBM, Texas Instruments, and Lam Research also after the close. Pre-market we get AT&T, Boeing, Boston Scientific, GE Vernova, Elevance, Moody's, Philip Morris, and Vertiv. Crude inventories at 10:30 ET.

Thursday, April 23: Intel after the close. Intel is the one I'm most curious about because the entire semi narrative outside of Nvidia and the hyperscaler trade is being written by what these guys say on their guide. Pre-market we get Honeywell, Thermo Fisher, Lockheed Martin, American Express, Comcast, Union Pacific, NextEra, Nasdaq, Freeport-McMoRan, and SAP. After the close, Newmont, Digital Realty, and Baker Hughes. On the data side, Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 ET, plus S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI prelims at 9:45 ET. Services PMI is the one to actually pay attention to because services is a much bigger chunk of the US economy than manufacturing. Anything below 50 means contraction.

Friday, April 24: HCA pre-market. Also Procter & Gamble, Schlumberger, Norfolk Southern, and Eni. Quiet on the data front.

The week after this is going to be the heavy heavy week. Visa, Robin Hood, Starbucks, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Qualcomm, Chipotle, SoFi, Apple, Reddit, Chevron, and Exxon all in one stretch. The oil major guides are going to be especially interesting given the whole Iran setup and the pressure Trump is putting on domestic drillers to pump more.

Final Thoughts:

Here's the deal on where I think we are. We just made a really big move. Your future expected returns from this point should not be vertical. That's not realistic. We're not at a forward P/E of 18 anymore, we're at a little over 20. So returns aren't going to be as good from here as they were from the bottom. Everyone needs to take a chill pill and let the market do its thing. If I had to draw what I think happens for the rest of 2026, it's something like a grind sideways, a soft drift down, and then the next leg higher when EPS keeps proving itself. That doesn't mean go sell everything and put it in bonds. It just means relax expectations.

What it really means is don't overallocate to high-beta speculative stuff right after a move like this. You missed some of it already? That's fine, learn from it. Opportunities come in lumps, not in a steady stream. You don't need to force a trade every day. Most days the right move is to do nothing.

Stick to the boring system. Buy good companies for less than what they're worth. Use options to magnify only when the math actually works. Keep your ratios in check. Let EPS do the heavy lifting. We're investors, not speculators, and the boring system works.

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth and health for you and your family!

-Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For April 20-April 24:
(all times in pst)

Monday April 20:
No major economic reports scheduled
Nano X Imaging Earnings (pre market)
Cleveland-Cliffs Earnings (pre market)
AGNC Investment (post market)

Tuesday April 21:
5:30a U.S. retail sales
7a U.S. leading economic indicators
7a Pending Home Sales
UnitedHealth Earnings (pre market)
GE Aerospace Earnings (pre market)
DR Horton Earnings (pre market)
Interactive Brokers Earnings (post market)
United Airlines Earnings (post market)
Capital One Financial Earnings (post market)

Wednesday April 22:
No major economic reports scheduled
Boeing Earnings (pre market)
AT&T Earnings (pre market)
Philip Morris Earnings (pre market)
Tesla Earnings (post market)
ServiceNow Earnings (post market)
IBM Earnings (post market)
Lam Research Earnings (post market)
Texas Instruments Earnings (post market)
Quantumscape Earnings (post market)
Southwest Airlines Earnings (post market)

Thursday April 23:
6:45a S&P flash U.S. PMI
American Express Earnings (pre market)
Blackstone Group Earnings (pre market)
American Airlines Earnings (pre market)
Nasdaq Earnings (pre market)
PulteGroup Earnings (pre market)
Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings (pre market)
Intel Earnings (post market)
SAP Earnings (post market)

Friday April 24:
7a Consumer sentiment (final)
Procter & Gamble Earnings (pre market)
Charter Communications Earnings (pre market)

This week will revolve around monitoring Iran + Q1 earnings really get rolling!