• Current read is 38 on the fear greed index vs 19 last week.

• I put this closer to 50. The market is at intrinsic value so neutral.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate up to 6.13% Today, vs 6.38% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield rose to 4.32% Today, vs 4.35% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield rose to 3.80% Today, vs 3.85% last week.

• Bond yields decreased slightly on hopes the Iran conflict will be resolved soon. But the smoke hasn’t cleared yet!

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, April 13, 2026

Past Week Returns: S&P 500 +3.12% | QQQ +3.84% | Oil -10.16% | Gold +2.22%

Last Week Recap:

Let me bring it all together for you because there's a lot going on right now and I want to make sure we're all on the same page.

The biggest story continues to be Iran and oil. I've been preaching from day one that oil is going to flow. I would bet my entire portfolio on that. And here's why. Look at what's happening in the background while everyone is panicking about the Strait of Hormuz. The US was exporting 3.7 million barrels per day not long ago. Now we're almost at 5 million. The East West pipeline ramped. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, they all know what's going on. There's a massive incentive for everyone to open up the strait. And even if they don't, the free market is already rerouting supply. Japan, South Korea, they're going to go get their oil from places that don't involve the chokepoint. When the ceasefire headlines hit earlier this week, oil dropped 17% instantly and the strait didn't suddenly have more flow. The market is a pricing machine. Oil is going to slowly bleed down over time.

Now the negotiations. JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and others are working on a deal. Look, if they cut a deal and everything is hunky dory, oil probably falls like a rock. But let's be realistic. There are egos. People want to save face. It's not as simple as everyone thinks. But the direction is clear. Oil is going to flow one way, shape, or form. I'm not stressing about Iran.

On the inflation side, CPI data came in and the internet lost its mind. But here's the thing. Core CPI hit 2.6% versus the 2.7% expectation. That's actually cooler than expected. And here's the logic on tariffs that most people are missing. A year ago, tariffs were just barely starting. So when you're compounding inflation data from last year to this year, you're going from no tariff inflation to tariff inflation. Of course there's a step change up. But in the coming months, we're going to be compounding tariff to tariff, not no tariff to tariff. That base effect is going to flatten things out.

TSM dropped some big numbers this week. 45% year over year revenue growth for March. That's why AI stocks were running. TSM is a pulse check on the whole AI sector. If TSM is reporting good revenue, that means AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Marvell are probably getting a lot of orders. That's a big deal and it tells you that AI demand is still accelerating.

On valuations, the S&P is sitting right around intrinsic value. Forward PE is 20.4 against a 10 year average of 19. We're not in a bubble. There's just less opportunity now than there was a couple weeks ago when I was at my most bullish. To be clear, there still is lots of deals & I am capitalizing and showing everything in Discord in real time with the deep logic and why.

Consumer sentiment is actually interesting here. Most people are bearish right now. Some are saying it feels worse than 2008. But the market is basically near all time highs. That's actually potentially bullish. All that fear means cash is sitting on the sidelines, and when things start ripping, that money floods back in. The herd gets excited when things go up and terrified when they go down. That hasn't changed in 50 years.

What To Watch Next Week:

Earnings season kicks off and this is a big one. We're going to get a ton of information about the banking sector and some major reads on AI.

Monday: Goldman Sachs and Fastenal report. Goldman will give us a read on investment banking activity and trading revenue in this volatile environment.

Tuesday: The big bank wave. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report. These are going to tell us about consumer spending, loan demand, and how the banks are positioned for the tariff and rate environment. Producer price index also drops and this will give us a gauge of leading inflationary indicators. Inflation has been bumpy lately so keeping an eye on these reports & understanding will help us navigate the market. I'll be breaking these down in Discord as usual.

Wednesday: Bank of America reports. Plus we get the Beige Book from the Fed which gives a ground level read on economic conditions across the country. Import price index also drops and will also give us a solid read on inflation factors.

Thursday: This is the day I'm watching closest. TSM reports their full quarterly earnings (not just the monthly revenue numbers we got this week). ASML also reports. These two together are going to tell us everything about AI chip demand and semiconductor spending going forward. Netflix and Ally Bank also report Thursday. Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday will give us another read on the labor market which has been softening but is ok for now.

Friday: Not much going on!

I expect earnings overall to come in good with solid guidance.
As you all know, companies follow the EPS in the long run.
As long as you allocate to a great company at a good price with solid EPS growth, you will likely do great if you are patient and keep ratios in check with stock options.

Final Thoughts:

Here's where I'm at on everything. Markets are at intrinsic value. I'm not stressing about Iran. Oil is going to flow one way or another. And we're about to get earnings season which will probably confirm that the economy is doing better than what sentiment suggests.

If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the smoke to clear on Iran or tariffs, understand this. If it clears overnight, the market gaps up and you missed it. Then you're going to be asking whether it's still a buy after a 10% run. You have to be greedy when other people are fearful. This dip was 12% peak to trough at a time the market was already a bit expensive. It just took us to where we should have been from the get go.

Buy good companies at good prices. Hold them for the long term. Keep your ratios in check so you can handle any volatility on the downside. Stick to the plan. It's worked for 100 years. It's going to keep working.

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth and health for you and your family!

-Brandon

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Economic/Earnings Calendar For April 13-April 17: 
(all times in pst)

Monday April 13: 
7a Existing home sales
3:20p Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks
Goldman Sachs Earnings (pre market)

Tuesday April 14: 
3a NFIB optimism index
5:30a Producer price index (PPI)
2:50p Fed governor Michael Barr speaks
JP Morgan Earnings (pre market)
Johnson & Johnson Earnings (pre market)
BlackRock Earnings (pre market)
Citi Bank Earnings (pre market)
Wells Fargo Earnings (pre market)
CarMax Earnings (pre market)

Wednesday April 15: 
5:30a Import price index
5:30a Empire State manufacturing survey
5:30a Fed governor Michael Barr speaks
7a Home builder confidence
10:45a Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks
11a Fed Beige Book
ASML Earnings (pre market)
Bank of America Earnings (pre market)
Morgan Stanley Earnings (pre market)
Progressive Earnings (pre market)
PNC Financial Earnings (pre market)

Thursday April 16: 
5:30a Initial/continued jobless claims
5:30a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing
5:35p New York Fed President John Williams speaks
6:15a Industrial production
7:35a Fed governor Stephen Miran speaks
TSM Earnings (pre market)
Pepsi Earnings (pre market)
Charles Schwab Earnings (pre market)
U.S. Bank Earnings (pre market)
Travellers Insurance Earnings (pre market)
Netflix Earnings (post market)

Friday April 17: 
5:30a Housing starts
9:15a Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin speaks
11a Fed governor Christopher Waller speaks
Ally Financial Earnings (pre market)
Truist Financial (pre market)

This week will revolve around Iran + Q1 earnings fire up!