• Current read is 15 on the fear greed index vs 20 last week.

• I put this closer to 50. The market just off ATHs so neutral.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate up to 6.50% Today, vs 6.20% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield rose to 4.39% Today, vs 4.28% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield rose to 3.91% Today, vs 3.73% last week.

• Bond yields increased a little bit this week over concerns with the Iran conflict and higher energy prices potentially causing sticky inflation.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Let’s Break It Down:

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, March 23rd

Last Week Recap:

This past week we saw continued volatility in high beta names as Mr. Market is still confused on how to price things…

That will likely continue with the Iran situation, slightly elevated valuations, inflation fears, weak jobs data, oil prices, & some concerns around AI data center funding.

This is where the emotional side of investing crushes people. You need to stay level headed. Know what you own and why you own it. Keep your ratios in check so you can survive volatility and capitalize on it. As prices fall while EPS keeps growing, that creates buy the dip opportunities in great companies.

Right now I believe the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are roughly 5% overvalued. Markets can easily fall 20 to 30% below fair value if the macro environment turns worse. That could mean another large drop from here. I do not think that is likely, but it is possible and you need to be prepared for it.

We just came off back to back 20% years in the market. Earnings growth did not justify that level of expansion, so valuations are stretched. A pullback is normal and healthy.

On the macro side, PPI inflation data came in hot this week! +3.4% YoY. The Fed’s goal is 2%. Truflation is closer to 1.6%. That being said, my overall thesis is in tact. I think this is bumpiness in the data and inflation will fall with time. It’s not going to be straight down and to to the right but if we zoom out I think the thesis will play out.

The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range this week. They slightly raised their growth and inflation projections for 2026. There’s still a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, but uncertainty is elevated because of the Iran situation and oil prices.

Initial and continued Jobless Claims came in fine this week so that helps calm fears in the labor market. This is basically just a metric of how many people get laid off and then how many people are currently sitting on unemployment. Both numbers came in good so that signals that the labor market is okay for now.

Overall I expect volatility to continue. Nothing changes about the strategy though. We buy great companies with strong competitive advantages and pricing power when they trade at good prices. Options are only used to magnify high conviction setups.

Keep your ratios in check and you will not lose sleep during volatility. We are investors, not speculators. The goal is to operate through both bull and bear markets while sticking to a disciplined plan.

Monday March 23

We will continue to monitor how the market reacts to the Iran situation. Oil and defense stocks will likely remain volatile. My thesis is still that WW3 is not here, but this situation will create some market swings.

Volatility should never catch us off guard. My portfolio is always positioned to handle both upside and downside. Focus on filtering signal from noise.

Earnings (nothing major)
WeRide
Deeper breakdowns will be posted in Discord.

Tuesday March 24

U.S. Productivity Report
Measures the efficiency of American workers by tracking output per hour of labor across different sectors of the economy. It shows how much goods and services workers produce relative to the time they put in.

The S&P PMI Report
A monthly survey based report that gives an early snapshot of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors.

Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr speaks

Earnings (nothing major)
GameStop
KB Home
Deep dives will be in Discord.

Wednesday March 25

Import Price Index
Tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased from foreign countries. It essentially measures inflation coming in from abroad.

Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran speaks

Earnings (nothing major)
Chewy Earnings
Paychex Earning’s
Beyond Meat Earnings
Jefferies Earnings
Deep dives will be posted in Discord.

Thursday March 26

Initial and Continued Jobless Claims
Initial claims show how many people are newly filing for unemployment. Continued claims show how long people remain unemployed. This gives a real time read on labor market strength.

Various Fed governors speak

Earnings (nothing major)
Pony Earnings
Lovesac Earnings
Deep dives will be posted in Discord.

Friday March 27

Consumer sentiment
Measures how optimistic or pessimistic Americans feel about their personal finances and the broader economy.

Earnings (nothing major)
Carnival Earnings
Deep dives will be posted in Discord.

Final Thoughts

I am not worried about the Iran situation or oil prices. This will likely not cause a lasting inflationary effect and move interest rates in the long run. Give this time to play out. Be patient & keep emotions in check!

Q4 earnings season is pretty much wrapped up, and I will be continuing to break everything down in real time inside Discord, I am continuing to look for opportunities while keeping risk and ratios in check.

Given that valuations are more compelling, I am finding more deals to capitalize on now. But not betting the house… Slowly dabbling as things become cheaper & long term prospects continue to look better.

This is exactly why I focus on long dated option contracts (1+year), buying calls and selling portfolio secured puts, not cash secured puts. Keep ratios & emotions in check!

I will see you all next week!

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth & health for you & your family!

-Brandon

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