• Current read is 27 on the fear greed index vs 43 last week.

• I put this closer to 50. The market just off ATHs with elevated valuations.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell shares/take on less risk)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate up to 6.07% Today, vs 5.71% last week.

• 10 year treasury bond yield rose to 4.14% Today, vs 3.97% last week

• 2 year treasury bond yield rose to 3.56% Today, vs 3.40% last week.

• Bond yields increased a little bit this week over concerns with the Iran conflict and higher energy prices potentially causing sticky inflation.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Let’s Break It Down:

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, March 9th

Overall Market Thoughts

This past week we saw continued volatility in the high beta, high volatility names as Mr. Market is still confused on how to price things.

This will likely continue because of the Iran situation, elevated market valuations (getting closer to fair value), inflation fears, bad jobs report, & Ai data center funding concerns.

I say it many times, the emotional aspect of investing is what crushes most people. You need to keep a level head in this volatility. Know what you own & why you own it. You will not stress in times like this. Keep ratios in check to always be able to not only survive the tips, but to capitalize too. As share prices continue to fall, EPS is growing. That = potential opportunity & companies becoming cheaper and more compelling to allocate.

Right now I feel like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are roughly 5 to 10% overvalued. The market can easily fall 20 or 30% below fair value if things make a turn for the worse in the macro environment. That could be another 35% drop fro current levels. Do I think this will happen? Unlikely, but of course possible and you need to be prepared for that.

We just came off back to back 20% years. Earnings growth did not justify that level of expansion. So valuations are stretched. A pullback is normal and healthy.

On the labor side, the employment report came in weaker than expected. This is the true needle mover, not the Iran situation…The Fed needs to cut rates as I have been saying. It’s clear the labor market is softening and inflation is not a threat.

The unemployment rate trended up to 4.4%. But historically speaking this is still very healthy. It’s not a major red flag now. But my thesis stands. I think AI is coming for many jobs and that will continue to put pressure on the labor market along with post Covid normalization.

Retails sales came in flat. This is not a big needle mover. This just shows month to month changes. Overall the consumer is still spending which is good!

Overall I expect continued volatility. But nothing changes about the strategy. We buy great companies at good prices with a moat, pricing power, and durable competitive advantage. We only use stock options to magnify ultra high conviction setups.

Keep your ratios in check and you never lose sleep. We are investors. Not speculators who only make money if everything goes straight up. We can operate in bull markets and bear markets & continue to beat the market in the long run by sticking to the plan that has worked for the last 10 years ish.

Monday March 9

We will continue to monitor how the market is reacting to the Iran situation. Oil prices will likely continue to be volatile, along with defense stocks. My thesis still is that WW3 is not here. But this will likely keep causing some volatility. As I say a million times, volatility will always come so it should never catch us off guard. My portfolio is always allocated to win on upside & downside. Filter out the signal vs noise. Ok, now in to the data below!

No major economic reports.

As for earnings, no big needle movers report Monday.

Tuesday March 10

We get the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. This is a monthly survey published by the National Federation of Independent Business that measures the sentiment of small U.S. business owners. It tracks plans for hiring, capital spending, inventory investment, expected sales, and views on current business conditions and the economy. A reading above about 98 signals that small businesses are feeling confident, lower readings suggest caution or pessimism. This index is widely watched as a leading indicator of broader economic health, hiring trends, and investment activities.

We also get the Existing Home Sales report which is a monthly report that tracks the annual rate of sales of previously owned single family homes. Because existing homes account for the vast majority of all residential transactions the report is a gauge of housing market health. This report can also give us clues on consumer spending, construction activity, and the broader economy. Interest rates have overall came down a little too, so we’ll see if this spurs up some demand.

As for earnings, we get Nio, Kohl’s, & Oracle.
The important one here will be Oracle to get a gauge of tech and AI spending. And if demand for AI compute is still accelerating or starting to level off. Also, we will likely hear about their OpenAi deal fall out and how things are going to fund this data center expansion. The funding is a major concern for many investors.
The rest matter less but I will still cover.
(deep dives will be in discord)

Wednesday March 11

We get the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This gives us the average change in prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services, including food, housing, transportation, medical care, and energy. The report breaks down into "headline" CPI, which includes all categories, and "core" CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components to reveal underlying inflation trends. Rising CPI readings indicate that consumers are paying more for everyday goods and services, which leads to inflation, while falling or stable readings suggest inflation is under control. The Fed uses this when making decisions about interest rates, so it’s an important one! But as I always say, inflation is usually a function of a good economy. It can be interpreted as demand and enough of it to push prices up. I would much rather have a strong economy with slightly higher rates vs a crap economy with low rates.

As for earnings, we get Campbell’s & OppFi.
No big needle movers here.
(deep dives will be in discord)

Thursday March 12

Initial and continued jobless claims come out. This is important.

Initial claims show how many people are newly filing for unemployment. Continued claims show how long people are staying unemployed. That gives us a real time gauge of labor market strength or weakness. One of the major threats right now to this bull market is the labor market, it’s important to watch this closely.

We get the U.S. trade deficit report that measures the difference between what the United States exports and what it imports in goods and services. A widening deficit suggests American consumers and businesses are spending heavily on foreign goods, or that demand for U.S. exports is weakening. A narrowing deficit may indicate slowing domestic demand or improving competitiveness of American products overseas. The report matters for GDP and it also feeds into trade policy and tariffs.

We also get the Housing Starts report, which tells us the number of new residential construction projects that have broken ground during the month. Housing starts are considered a leading economic indicator because residential construction has a ripple effect across the economy, driving demand for building materials, labor, appliances, and furnishings. Rising starts generally signal builder confidence, strong housing demand, and economic expansion, while declining starts can point to affordability challenges, rising (or higher) interest rates, or weakening consumer confidence.

As for earnings, we get Dollar General, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Adobe, & Lennar
Adobe is the big dog and will give us clues about if AI is really bringing down the software industry.
(deep dives will be in discord)

Friday March 13

We get the The GDP first revision which updates the initial estimate with more complete data. GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States over a given quarter, making it the broadest gauge of overall economic health. The first revision matters because the advance estimate relies on incomplete data and can sometimes be revised significantly as more detailed figures come in. A notable upward revision can reinforce confidence in economic momentum, while a downward revision may raise concerns about slowing growth.

We also get the PCE price index, that shows the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers across the entire economy. While it covers similar ground as the CPI, the PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation because it captures a broader range of spending. The Fed has a long standing target of 2% annual inflation as measured by PCE, so readings above or below that level directly influence expectations for interest rate decisions. This one can be a needle mover!

We also get the Durable Goods Orders report. This shows new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more, such as machinery, vehicles, appliances, aircraft, and defense equipment. It serves as a key indicator of business and consumer confidence in future economic conditions, since purchases of expensive, long lasting items typically reflect a willingness to commit capital over a longer time horizon. Rising durable goods orders suggest that companies are expanding and investing in future growth, while declining orders can signal caution or an approaching slowdown. Because business spending on equipment and machinery feeds directly into GDP and employment, the report is closely watched as an early signal of where the broader economy may be heading.

We get the Job Openings report that shows the number of unfilled job positions across the economy on the last business day of each month. A high level of job openings relative to the number of unemployed workers suggests a tight labor market where employers are competing for talent, which can put upward pressure on wages and inflation. The Federal Reserve watches this closely as part of its view of labor market tightness and its implications for inflation. My thesis overall is the labor market is weakening/normalizing post COVID. This report will help give more clues!

And we get the prelim Consumer Sentiment report which give us how optimistic or pessimistic American consumers feel about their personal finances and the broader economy. The survey captures two main components: current economic conditions, which reflects how people feel about their present financial situation, and consumer expectations, which gauges their outlook for income, employment, and business conditions over the next one to five years. It’s mostly opinion. But a good to keep an eye on.

No companies report earnings.

Final Thoughts

I am not worried about the Iran situation or oil prices. This will likely not cause a lasting inflationary effect and move interest rates in the long run. Give this time to play out. Be patient & keep emotions in check!

We are wrapping up Q4 earnings season, and I will be breaking everything down in real time inside Discord, continuing to look for opportunities while keeping risk and ratios in check.

Given current valuation levels, I expect volatility to remain elevated, but investors with a longer term time horizon will likely still do very well.

This is exactly why I focus on long dated option contracts (1+year), buying calls and selling portfolio secured puts, not cash secured puts. Keep ratios & emotions in check!

I will see you all next week!

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth & health for you & your family!

-Brandon

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