Welcome to The Alpha Report 👋

You only have to get rich once. Now is your time.

Major News Today:

• The economy is stronger than you think.

• SMCI rebounds.

• Google hit with anti trust case over chrome.

• Watchlist changes.

• 30 year fixed mortgage falls to 7.07% from 7.08% yesterday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbs slightly to 4.42% from 4.41% yesterday.

  (5 minute read)

Fear & Greed Index For Today

• 50 yesterday & 58 today.

• Market pushed higher today, pushing us to slightly greedy territory.

• Be greedy when others are fearful.

• Be fearful when others are greedy.

  

Million Dollar Lesson:

When choosing between investments, ask yourself, “where is my dollar going to work the hardest?

The Current State of The Economy:

• Today, we got a report about the jobless claims in America.

• Jobless claims are 213,000 vs 220,000 expected.

• Basically what this means is there is less people unemployed and looking for work, which implies the economy is strong and people have jobs.

• The economy appears to be strong based on this data.

• We are now at a 55% chance we get a rate cut at the December meeting.

• Basically the thought process is if the economy is strong, or even stronger vs expected, there is not a huge rush to have to cut.
  

  

  We are currently at 4.5% - 4.75%. This is the % chance we will be at each rate range.

• So what does this mean?

• Well, in my opinion, the economy is strong and the fed seems to be close to pulling off the impossible. Cutting rates to keep the economy/labor market strong while at the same time not reigniting inflation.

• Inflation is in the mid 2% range (2.0% is the target)

• Unemployment is low.

• Companies are efficient, productive, and profitable.

• This is a goldilocks situation if it pans out.

SMCI Pumps:

• Congrats to everyone that got behind the calls I sent out in my watchlist on this newsletter & the exact play on Discord in real time!

• SMCI had been beat down hardddd for its accounting issues but it seems to be calming down.

• Especially after Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) thanked SMCI for the help implementing the new Blackwell hardware into data centers.

• The fact that Jensen said that, on top of SMCI getting backing from an accounting firm to bring their books up to compliance, this greatly reduces the delisting scenario for SMCI, which is why it is pumping.

• Based on my intrinsic value calculator, the value of SMCI is actually $93.85

• The current price is around $30.

• This appears to be very undervalued.

  
  Click Here To Get My Intrinsic Value Calculator For FREE!

Google Hit With Anti Trust Case

• The DOJ is reportedly seeking to mandate the sale of Google's Chrome browser.

• I don't think this is a big deal at all and I see this as a dip buying opportunity.

• The DOJ argues that Chrome's integration with Google's search engine reinforces its market position, potentially stifling competition.

• Chrome itself doesn't directly generate revenue for google ,but its role in "directing" users to Google's search and advertising services is important.

• Even at that, most ppl use safari for example on apple and do google search... I am not convinced this is justified to drop the stock price this much.

• I don’t think this will be resolved until 2025 at the earliest and the Trump admin is anti regulation so this prob will blow over in my opinion. (the stock is on sale)

• I like google for the next 3 years.

• Beyond that I see competition from Chat GPT and other up and coming AI models

  

Current Valuations:

• The S&P 500 (Ticker: VOO) is at a forward PE ratio of about 21.7 right now, we are a little lofty. (But not crazy expensive)

• The Nasdaq 100 (Ticker: QQQ) is at a forward PE of 26.21 right now, which is a tad lofty also, but faster growth is being priced in which justifies a higher PE.

• Interest rates are gravity on stocks. We are currently at 4.75% fed funds rate now. We are expected to be at 4 in a year. 1% is a decent cut and that will make a difference.

• Remember, if rates fall, yields on bonds will fall. That means stocks are the only game in town. BUT, if rates are say 5%, that competes with stocks and many people will go for the “guaranteed” 5% yield on the bond vs “risk” of stocks.

Brandons Watch List:

(Updated Daily)

👇My Price Targets For End Of Year 2025👇

• QQQ - $530

• VOO - $580

•  IWM - $240

• SOXX - $240

• TSLA - $380

• NVDA - $190

• AAPL - $240

• PLTR - $60

• AMZN - $240

• GOOG - $195

• SMCI - $100

👇My Favorite New Trades 👇

I either plan to enter, or have already entered these trades.

• QQQ - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• VOO - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• SOXX - DCA Shares - 3 year minimum hold duration

• TSLA - DCA Shares - 5 year minimum hold duration

• PLTR - Buy Puts - 3 Month Duration - Strike Price $60

• GOOG - Sell Puts - 1 year duration - Strike $150

• GOOG - Buy Calls - 2 month duration - Strike $165

• NVDA - Buy & hold for 2+ yrs & sell 1 year puts at a strike of $130

• AMZN - Buy shares on a dip and hold for 2+ yrs

• SMCI - Buy calls - 5 month duration - $28 strike.

(Join premium discord to see my exact trades in real time, link below)

👇How My Trades Have Performed Since 2023👇

👇My Investing/Options Strategy👇

Doing this strategy below, I have made millions in the stock market & generate $30k/mo on average with options.

Current Value of My Trading Account:

• I think we are about 5-10% over valued as a whole, so if the market takes a dip, that’s 100% normal. (reversion to the mean)

• So I consider the intrinsic value of my trading account to be somewhere around $800k, not $888,796

Final Comments:

• Economy seems to be strong

• I think AI is the future, and Nvidia & SMCI is a great way to get exposure.

• Companies will be forced to invest in AI, or they will get left behind and clobbered by the adopters.

• SMCI pumps and appears to be undervalued.

• Google is solid for the next few years, but will face more competition as time goes on.

• I see the market at 5-10% over valued. (a dip is ok and normal if it comes)

• Keep your emotions in check on pumps and dumps.

• Continue to DCA into quality stocks/ETFs at good prices.

• When you find undervalued companies, use options to magnify gains

• Check out my links below for my course, free guides, & intrinsic value calculator!

👇Check Out My Links Below👇