• Current read is 52 on the fear greed index vs 55 last week.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.04% Today, vs 5.95% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield increased to 4.23% Today, vs 4.17% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbed to 3.59% Today, vs 3.54% last Sunday.

• Bond yields went up slightly this week on the backs of strong economic data, investors interpret that as rates higher for longer. mortgage rates slightly increase.c

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

Let’s Break It Down:

Upcoming Week Market Outlook | Week of Monday, January 26

Market Overview:

The market is dealing with several “good & bad” things at the same time.

We have short term volatility tied to renewed tariff headlines around Trump and global trade, especially involving Canada and China. At the same time, Q4 earnings season is just getting started, and investors are clearly nervous about a few key things. AI spending expectations, the pace of data center build outs, and whether that demand eventually slows. All of that feeds directly into valuation concerns, especially across large cap tech.

On the macro side, inflation continues to trend lower, but the labor market is starting to soften. That puts the Federal Reserve in a tough spot. They are trying to balance easing inflation against a weakening labor backdrop without cutting rates too early or losing credibility.

Despite all the noise, the strategy does not change. We focus on buying great businesses at reasonable prices and being patient. When we use options, we stick to long duration contracts, one year minimum, to give ourselves time and flexibility. Volatility is not something to fear if you are positioned correctly. It is something to use.

Monday January 26

• We get durable goods orders, but the bigger driver is likely going to be headline risk around tariffs. There has been chatter about Canada exploring trade dynamics with China, including concerns that Chinese autos could be routed through Canada and eventually into the US. If tariff threats escalate, expect volatility. This is more of a sentiment and positioning day than a fundamentals driven one.

Tuesday January 27

• Tuesday brings a mix of data and important earnings.

  We get consumer confidence data, which is worth watching but should be viewed as soft data. People can say they feel bad about the economy and still spend money. Hard data like actual spending matters more over time, but confidence can still move markets in the short term.

  Earnings pre market include UnitedHealth Group, American Airlines, UPS, Boeing, and HCA Healthcare. Post market we hear from Seagate Technology.

  Together, these companies give us a broad snapshot of the economy. Healthcare usage, travel demand, shipping volumes, manufacturing, and enterprise spending. I will be breaking all of this down in real time inside Discord.

Wednesday January 28

• Wednesday is the most important day of the week.

  Pre market we get earnings from ASML, which is critical for understanding AI chip demand and capital spending across the semiconductor ecosystem. We also get Starbucks earnings, which helps gauge discretionary consumer behavior.

  Later in the day, we get the Federal Reserve rate decision followed by Jerome Powell’s press conference. I expect messaging along the lines of inflation still elevated, with the labor market holding but slowly weakening. The most likely outcome is policy staying stable for now.

  It is also worth remembering that Powell’s term is expected to end later this year, and the next Fed chair is likely to be more dovish. Markets care about what comes next, even if nothing changes immediately.

  Post market we get earnings from Tesla, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and ServiceNow.

  This will be a major test for big tech sentiment, AI monetization narratives, and forward guidance. You already know I am allocated to some of these names. We will evaluate the data and decide if adjustments or additional allocations make sense.

Thursday January 29

• Thursday is more focused on labor and trade.

  We get initial and continued jobless claims, which help track labor market health in real time. We also get trade deficit data and productivity numbers, which feed into broader growth and inflation trends.

  Pre market earnings include Mastercard. Post market we hear from Apple, Visa, and Western Digital.

  Payments and consumer tech will give us important insight into spending behavior and global demand.

Friday January 30

• Friday wraps up the week with inflation data and earnings.

  We get PPI inflation data and the Chicago Business Barometer, which help shape expectations around pricing pressure and economic momentum.

  Earnings pre market include SoFi Technologies and Chevron. This gives us visibility into both consumer finance trends and energy markets.

Overall thoughts:

• This week is about earnings, volatility, and opportunity.

  There will be a lot of information coming in quickly. That is why we focus on breaking the data down, simplifying it, and making logical decisions instead of emotional ones.

  The market is not cheap right now, which means risk management matters. Corporate earnings are solid, but black swan events always happen eventually. At some point in the next 20 years, there will be a 40 to 50% drawdown. Being prepared for that is part of long term investing.

  We stay disciplined. We stay patient. We buy quality when prices make sense. Then we let time do the work.

  Thanks for reading this week’s newsletter!
  I will see you all inside Discord!

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth & health for you & your family!

See you in next weeks newsletter!

-Brandon

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