Alpha Report Issue #112

The Current State of The Market

Author

Brandon
December 21, 2025

Before we dive in, I wanted to drop a link to my most recent YouTube video.
It’s a VERY important one!
I walk you through step by step how I sell portfolio secured puts (not cash secured) and generate on average $30k/mo in cash flow in a conservative way + capture max appreciation.

It’s 18 min long and I think you’ll get a lot of value!

Here is the link:

This is the one you wanna watch!

  • Current read is 45 on the fear greed index vs 40 last week.

  • I disagree with the 40 reading and put this closer to 65 (So in the greed category.)

  • We are within a few percent of ATHs… We can't be neutral and be that close to the highs… Doesn’t make sense.

  • Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

  • Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

  • I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

  • I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

  • Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index (I disagree with this number, I put it at 65, not 45)

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (even though it says fear in the top right, this is actually greedy IMO. Another thing I disagree with and why the overall number of 45 is artificially skewed lower)

This Put/Call ratio shows people are bullish because this number is below 1. Below 1 = more people buying calls. Above 1 = more people buying puts. Notice how there was lots of puts being bought when the market was falling in April? Ya, most of those all expired worthless. Thats when I was selling them! So again, the fear greed index is skewed and this is not extreme fear as shown in the top right.

Volatility is critical to understand cause it directly impacts options premiums & we capitalize on this!

  • 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.20% Today, vs 6.12% last Sunday.

  • 10 year treasury bond yield climbed to 4.14% Today, vs 4.13% last Sunday.

  • 2 year treasury bond yield climbed to 3.48% Today, vs 3.55% last Sunday.

  • Interest rates/bond yields didn't do too much this week.

  • As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

  • As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

  • Last week gave us a pretty clear snapshot of where the economy & markets actually stand right now.

  • We finally got the delayed jobs report and it confirmed what the trend has been pointing to for a while.

  • The labor market is continuing to cool.

  • This could be for a few reasons, but largely because of higher interest rates, Ai efficiencies (can do more work with less people), and uncertainties in the overall economy.

  • I think Ai is only going to get better and this will continue to be more of a factor in the labor market!

At the same time, retail sales came in strong YoY. Even with a softer labor market, consumers are still spending. That tells us the economy is not taking a major crap, it’s kinda just holding steady & people still have money to blow. The US economy is a consumer based economy, so consumer spending is very important to track & understand.

  • We also got earnings from Micron, & this was a VERY important one for the health of the AI trade.

  • I read the entire report & listened to the earnings call.

  • I will leave it at this, the report was very strong with great guidance & gave me even more confidence the AI trade is still there and demand is strong for years to come.

  • There of course will be lot’s of volatility, but Ai still looks good.

  • I have my detailed breakdown posted in Discord!

On the labor side, initial & continued jobless claims came in relatively healthy. That tells us the labor market is stable, but there is an important nuance here. Liquidity in the labor market is pretty thin. Hiring is slower, job openings are lower, & turnover is pretty low. If layoffs were to accelerate meaningfully, unemployment would likely rise faster than people expect because people simply would not be able to find a job. That is not happening yet, but it is something I am watching very close. Jerome Powell also mentioned this is one of his biggest fears & why they cut rates again.

  • The bigger picture overall for the next 2 weeks is that we are now entering a quieter stretch before Q4 earnings begin & more economic data drops after the holiday season.

  • So it will be slower, but that is ok!

  • That does not mean opportunities disappear.

  • It just means we stay patient, selective, & disciplined.

  • Valuations are still a little hot (15% ish), so risk management matters more than ever.

  • I keep position sizes reasonable, ratios in check, & expectations grounded.

  • I expect lot’s of volatility in the coming months & I will be ready to capitalize!

  • We are positioned to benefit if the market continues higher, & we are also ready to take advantage of pullbacks if/when they come.

I continue to build my base portfolio. I continue to sell PORTFOLIO SECURED PUTS, not cash secured puts, when there is compelling opportunities. I will then take that cash flow and buy shares/LEAP calls. Then I be patient and let the companies grow EPS & revert back to the valuation they should be at! (I always do 1+year contracts, it’s much easier & safer) Watch the YouTube video on top to see more of what I do!

As always, I am rooting for you and want nothing but wealth & health for you & your family!

See you in next weeks newsletter!

-Brandon

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THANKS FOR READING!
HAVE A GREAT WEEK!
-BRANDON

DISCLAIMER: I AM NOT A CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX ADVISOR, OR INSURANCE ADVISOR. NOTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, COURSES, OR OTHER CONTENT CONSTITUTES FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX, LEGAL, INSURANCE, OR OTHER ADVICE, NOR SHOULD ANYTHING CONTAINED WITHIN THESE EMAILS, VIDEOS, OR OTHER CONTENT BE RELIED UPON FOR MAKING AN INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. YOU SHOULD CONSIDER OBTAINING RELEVANT AND SPECIFIC PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISION. IF YOU NEED SUCH ADVICE, PLEASE CONTACT A QUALIFIED CPA, ATTORNEY, TAX PROFESSIONAL,  INSURANCE AGENT, OR FINANCIAL ADVISOR. PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS. YOU CAN LOSE MONEY INVESTING AND TRADING. LINKED ITEMS MAY CREATE A FINANCIAL BENEFIT FOR INVESTINGWITHBRANDON.