Alpha Report Issue #109

The Current State of The Market

Brandon
November 30, 2025

Current read is 24 on the fear greed index vs 11 last week.
I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.
I disagree with the 24 reading and put this closer to 60 (So in the neutral category.)
We are within a few percent of ATHs… We can't be extreme fear and be that close to the highs… Doesn’t make sense.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)
I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear
I like to be bearish when extreme greed.
Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index (I disagree with this number, I put it at 60, not 24)

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (even though it says neutral in the top right, this is actually greedy, another thing I disagree with and why the overall number of 24 is artificially skewed lower)

Put/Call ratio still shows people are still bullish because this number is below 1. Below 1 = more people buying calls. Above 1 = more people buying puts. Notice how there was lots of puts being bought when the market was falling in April? Ya, most of those all expired worthless. Thats when I was selling them! So again, the fear greed index is skewed and this is not extreme fear as shown in the top right.

Volatility is critical to understand cause it directly impacts options premiums & we capitalize on this!

30 year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.11% Today, vs 6.20% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield fell to 4.01% Today, vs 4.06% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield fell to 3.49% Today, vs 3.50% last Sunday.
Bonds did fall a tad this week as the market is now pricing in the chance of a fed rate cut for December at 87%.
As I always say, interest rates are gravity!
As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

— (@)

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

Hope everyone had a great week!
So this past week we had some important economic data released that helps get a better picture of the economy & labor market.
First off, we got PPI inflation data & that is pointing to inflation continuing to cool (this helps the thesis to cut interest rates)
PPI is a critical metric that the fed will track to se how inflation is progressing.
We are moving in the right direction!
Retail sales data did come in a little soft, but I personally just see this as volatility in the data.
This again moves the needle in favor of rate cuts.
Consumer confidence came in soft & while this metric is not super important, let me explain why it could matter.
It’s this potential self fulfilling prophecy in a way that if consumers are scared to spend money cause maybe they fear a recession, or layoff, or any negative financial event, they will not spend money.
When less money is spent, that will in turn slow down the economy (this may be why retail sales were a tad soft, but it’s likely just volatility in the data)
I know I am kinda throwing data at you, but I will bring it together in a min.
We also got initial & continued jobless claims.
Initial jobless claims are basically when you lose your job and file for unemployment benefits week 1.
This data came in good, meaning less people lost their jobs vs expectations.
Continued claims is anyone that sits on unemployment longer than 1 week.
This number came in a little hot, which could indicate that when people lose their jobs, it is harder to find one.
I do think this is exactly what is panning out.
AI is real and companies are being more cautions to hire humans cause AI efficiencies are solid & is only going to get better.
The economy is going to be VERY different in the coming years & this Ai job displacement is real.
Next week I have a detailed video dropping in Discord of my thesis of what will happen, when, & how to capitalize.
Ok so let’s bring this data together and close out with what to expect this upcoming week.
So this data matters because it’s important to build a macro thesis of the state of the economy & labor market.
Overall I think things are simply ok.
Not amazingly good.
Not super bad.
Just ok… But guess what! That is fine!
So if I was the fed, I would cut rates again next month to help support the labor market because if we get a spike in layoffs for whatever reason, it is going to be hard to find a job…
Ok, now this upcoming week will be important.
See the screenshot below to see everything that matters this upcoming week.
The main things will be Marvell earnings to see how chip design is going + the various economic data points.
It’s all about taking in as much info as possible to build a strong macro & micro thesis.
The more we know, the more obvious stocks & options plays become.
As always, I will be reporting on everything in real time in discord!
Super quick on valuations.
Yes, still a little hot.
Gotta be careful right now.
I like less beta in lofty market & more bata in cheaper market.
Right now there is still LOTS of opportunities, but gotta be more careful!
Please don’t be the investor that only survives in the bull markets, be the one that survives and capitalizes in bear markets too…
Don’t over leverage, keep ratios in check, know what you own & why you own it!
I will end this newsletter at that!