Alpha Report Issue #108

The Current State of The Market

Brandon
November 23, 2025

Current read is 11 on the fear greed index vs 21 last week.
I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.
I disagree with the 11 reading and put this closer to 55 (So in the neutral category.)
We are within a few percent of ATHs… We can't be extreme fear and be that close to the highs… Doesn’t make sense.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)
I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear
I like to be bearish when extreme greed.
Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index (I disagree with this number, I put it at 60, not 11)

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (even though it says fear in the top right, this is actually greedy, another thing I disagree with and why the overall number of 22 is artificially skewed lower)

Put/Call ratio still shows people are still bullish because this number is below 1. Below 1 = more people buying calls. Above 1 = more people buying puts. Notice how there was lots of puts being bought when the market was falling in April? Ya, most of those all expired worthless. Thats when I was selling them! So again, the fear greed index is skewed and this is not extreme fear as shown in the top right.

Volatility is critical to understand cause it directly impacts options premiums & we capitalize on this!

30 year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.20% Today, vs 6.21% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield fell to 4.06% Today, vs 4.15% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield fell to 3.50% Today, vs 3.60% last Sunday.
Bonds did fall a tad this week as the market is trying to figure out if it should price in a December rate cut.
Right now the chances of a cut are 70%.
As I always say, interest rates are gravity!
As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

— (@)

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

Hope everyone had a great week!
The market did have some volatility this week but nothing too major.
There are lots of people online in a panic, especially the Bitcoin ppl.
BUT GUESS WHAT! Volatility is normal and expected!
Especially with risk on assets like Bitcoin!
On the earnings front, Nvidia was the BIG dog this past week and I will keep this simple.
They reported VERY strong and the guide was great too.
The AI demand fears should be crushed after this report.
Margins expanding
Growth accelerating
Lots of opportunity here if we play it right.
But it will be a bumpy ride! So we will use the volatility to our advantage.
I did a detailed breakdown and thesis video in discord when they reported breaking everything down. But it was pretty good!
There was 1 major thing that could be an issue for them in a few years when Ai goes from training to inference.
But I cover more of that in Discord and how I feel it will play out.
I did also break down TJ Max, Lowes, Home Depot, & Walmart.
While I am not buying any of these companies, I use these reports to build a macro thesis for the state of the consumer & discretionary spending.
Overall the consumer IMO is average.
Not amazing, but not horrible.
Just middle of the ground average, & that is ok!
As for the state of the market, I do think valuations are a little stretched, but it is better now.
Market fell a little and profits continue to climb.
That means the market is becoming cheaper, safer, and more compelling.
Good!
We needed to take a breather!
The rate the market was going up since April was 100% not sustainable.
Giving some back is good and healthy and if we give another 15% back, that is totally fine!
Keep your emotions in check.
Do not panic.
The market will be up and to the right in the long term.
But in the short term it will be bumpy!
But guess what, if we didn’t have the volatility, we would not have opportunities to capitalize!
So don’t think like the herd.
Think like an investor.
Buy low. Sell high.
More risk in a cheap market.
Less risk in an expensive market.
Continue to DCA into the base portfolio.
Continue to use options when it makes sense to magnify a ultra high confidence set up.
Keep it simple!!!!!!!