Alpha Report Issue #107

The Current State of The Market

Brandon
November 16, 2025

Current read is 22 on the fear greed index vs 21 last week.
I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.
I disagree with the 22 reading and put this closer to 55 (So in the neutral category.)
We are within a few percent of ATHs… We can't be extreme fear and be that close to the highs… Doesn’t make sense.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)
I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear
I like to be bearish when extreme greed.
Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index (I disagree with this number, I put it at 60, not 21)

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (even though it says fear in the top right, this is actually greedy, another thing I disagree with and why the overall number of 22 is artificially skewed lower)

Put/Call ratio still shows people are still bullish because this number is below 1. Below 1 = more people buying calls. Above 1 = more people buying puts. Notice how there was lots of puts being bought when the market was falling in April? Ya, most of those all expired worthless. Thats when I was selling them! So again, the fear greed index is skewed and this is not extreme fear as shown in the top right.

Volatility is critical to understand cause it directly impacts options premiums & we capitalize on this!

30 year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.21% Today, vs 6.19% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbed to 4.15% Today, vs 4.09% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield climbed to 3.60% Today, vs 3.56% last Sunday.
Bonds did climb a little this week as the December rate cut is now close to a coin toss. As that is getting “unpriced” yields climbed a little.
As I always say, interest rates are gravity!
As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

— (@)

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

Hope everyone had a great week!
We did experience some volatility but nothing too major.
I did see some interesting things on X where people were somehow getting margin called.
Literally we are within a few percent of ATHs and here people are already getting wiped out.
NOT GOOD!
Just wait till a real dip comes. Their brokers will be knocking on their front doors for the rest of their lives for the money they owe them.
On a positive note, the government is in the process of being opened back up.
This proved to be a buy the rumor sell the news event but that was kinda expected given how much the market ran up the last few months.
Giving some back is ok, normal, and healthy.
I’m pumped we are back open cause I enjoy dissecting the data and building a solid macro thesis to make better investment decisions.
The data for the first few releases may be unreliable so take it with a grain of salt.
We also saw interest rates trend up a little as the market starts to unprice the December rate cut.
Jerome Powell was hinting hard at the last press conference that he was leaning towards a pause.
We will see what happens but for now it’s a coin toss.
Remember, interest rates are gravity on stocks. As rates fall, that justifies higher market valuations.
Why?
Bonds are less attractive. More consumer spending. More business expansion. Cheaper cost of capital. Ect…
But the fact that we are at 3.75% and the terminal rate is somewhere around 3%, there isn’t much more juice left in rate cuts anyways, so if we skip in December it’s not the end of the world.
With valuations where they are, rate cuts are kinda needed as perfection is priced in to this market.
We shall see but I am positioned to win either way.
On the earnings front this past week, the big dog was CoreWeave.
They basically buy a bunch of compute from Nvidia and rent it out.
They say the demand is VERY strong, but there will be bumps along the way as they scale.
The big question around all of this Ai spending is when these companies will get a ROI on the massive spending.
Coreweave is not profitable.
Many other data centers are not either.
But right now is the build out stage, they aren’t supposed to make a killing yet.
Time will tell but I think we will be ok here.
This upcoming week we got the BIG DOG Nvidia.
We all know what they do.
Everything they say will be dissected by all investors including myself.
I will be reporting everything live in Discord with my deep dive into the good, the bad, and the ugly, and of course how we can capitalize and make some money.