• Current read is 21 on the fear greed index vs 35 last week.

• I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.

• I disagree with the 35 reading and put this closer to 60.

• Yes, greed category! Market has been ripping the last few months!

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.19% Today, vs 6.11% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbed to 4.09% Today, vs 4.08% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.56% Today, vs 3.58% last Sunday.

• Bonds didn’t do too much this week.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

• So this past week we got earnings from Palantir, AMD, and RobinHood.

• All of the reports were solid in my opinion, but why did they all fall after reporting?

• Simple. Expectations vs reality.

• The market has been running up to the moon the last few months and these stocks simply just got carried away.

• While the earnings were great, it was not enough to support the euphoric rally, so things came back down to earth a little.

• Also, Palantir is trading at 278x trailing earnings. No stock trades at that high of a valuation forever…

• So either the stock fall, EPS climbs, or a combination of both will happen as the company gets much needed PE ratio contraction.

• This is healthy for these companies to fall after reporting solid numbers.

• They become “double cheaper” and this market has been on a tear like I said, so this is justified and healthy.

• Don’t get emotional… The market will not be green every single day lol.

• The government remain shut down and it’s kinda shocking how long this has been dragging out…

• A deal will eventually be made, but nothing yet.

• The thing that sucks is much of the government produced economic data is not being released and even once the government re opens, much of the data will prob be inaccurate for a few months.

• The key numbers such as the jobs data we have not got…

• With everything happening now with AI taking jobs, I am very curious as to the strength of the labor market and Jerome Powell said this too.

• He said we are in the “fog” now and adjusting interest rate policy will be done slower simply cause we can not see a clear picture of what is happening under the hood.

• Time will tell!

• But to bring this back home and simplify my overall thoughts.

• I think the market is about 15% over valued.

• A dip/breather is healthy and justified.

• The economy is weakening a little a jobs are harder to find because of AI.

• This problem is only going to get worse.

• J Powell is trying to find the interest rate balance that makes sense to support the economy and not re spark inflation.

• It’s harder now with less economic data.

• I continue to unvest in undervalued companies with pricing power.

• My overall leverage for sold puts is pretty low right now.

• As valuations get more expensive, I de risk.

• As valuations get cheaper, I add risk.

• Either way I am positioned to win in upside and downside!

• You should be too!

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