• Current read is 35 on the fear greed index vs 33 last week.

• I only put the fear greed index in here cause I know many people look at this.

• I disagree with the 35 reading and put this closer to 70.

• Yes, greed category! Market has been ripping the last few months!

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.11% Today, vs 6.07% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbed to 4.08% Today, vs 4.00% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbed to 3.58% Today, vs 3.48% last Sunday.

• Interest rates went up a little this week after J Powell seemed to take December rat cuts off the table a little!

• I covered it on my YouTube video on Thursday.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

• We had a HUGE week of earnings this past week in addition to Jerome Powell at the fed speaking!

• Let’s start with our boy Jerome.

• Rates got cut and we are now in the range of 3.75% - 4.0%

• That was expected and all good!

• The issue was with what he said in the press conference…

• The market was largely expecting to get another cut in December, but J Powell was trying tot take that off the table.

• Why would he do that? INFLATION!

• Inflation is right around 3% now, and the target is 2%.

• In addition to this, the economy is slowing down, especially the labor market.

• So the fed is being pulled between 2 different things… (Economy & Inflation)

• Lower rates helps the economy, but makes inflation worse.

• Higher rates helps inflation, but makes the economy worse.

• So he was saying to not 100% plan for a December cut!

• Good news with this is that the US and China apparently made a trade deal which will bring tariffs down.

• Some of this inflation is caused by tariffs, so that will help the fed feel more confident to cut!

• As you all know by watching my YouTube videos & reading these newsletters is that inflation is gravity on the stock market!

• So with the stock market currently at a higher valuation, rate cuts are kinda needed to help support it!

• So we will see what happens. I am 50/50 right now on the December cut.

• Ok, now in the earnings front.

• We got a bunch of earnings from some of the big dogs like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, United Health, & Apple.

• Overall, the reports have been good, but there are some key themes.

• Lot’s of spending still so come on CapEx (this is why META fell, but I do think it is attractive here)

• Ai is the center of attention and efficiency will continue to improve because of it.

• So for now in the short term, the Capex will drag EPS down cause its a big expense, but when that slows down its double bullish for the hyper scalers.

• Why?

• Cause expenses will be lower and efficiency will be higher.

• Translates to higher EPS.

• Higher EPS = Higher stock prices in the long term.

• Key word here is LONG TERM!

• So companies like meta that are beat up in price are spendings lots in cap ex will likely have MUCH higher EPS as the years come by.

• I did DEEP breakdowns on all of this stuff in discord and all the potential plays to make!

• Ok! Thats what I got for today.

• Have a great week!

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