• Current read is 27 on the fear greed index vs 29 last week.

• Market has some short term fear baked in.

• Volatility from Trump & China is spooking investors.

• I do feel this is over blown and the market is closer to 60 on this scale.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.08% Today, vs 6.20% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.01% Today, vs 4.05% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.46% Today, vs 3.52% last Sunday.

• Interest rates fell a little but this week.

• That downward trend helps support the higher market valuations.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend & did something productive!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

• So this week we got some action!

• We apparently were going to have 100% tariffs on China, but that seemed to be reversed by Trump.

• He said the meeting with China is on for roughly 2 weeks from now and it does seem likely there will be some form of a deal on rare earth materials (this was the main reason for Trump to hit back with potential 100% tariffs)

• Once the market got wind of the reversal, the market rebounded.

• Just day to day volatility here and emotional investors reacting to every single news headline…

• More often than not, the best “move to make” is making no move at all.

• Also, ppl calling that a major “buy the dip” opportunity really have no clue how the market works.

• A 3% dip is not a needle mover, especially with the market valuations being as lofty as they are.

• I see the market as 15-20% over valued. (3% doesn’t matter that much)

• Focus on the needle movers!

• Jerome Powell at the fed did talk this week and it was honestly kinda shocking.

• I have been listening to him for years and he does seem heavy on the dovish side. (in favor of cutting rates)

• He tied this to the fact that the labor market is weakening quite a but.

• So as you know, the fed has 2 jobs. Strong labor market & stable prices.

• Inflation (stable prices) does not seem to be a concern and I do agree.

• Ai is deflationary and it’s already impacting many industries.

• So as inflation cools in the coming quarters, the fed will be focusing on supporting the labor market.

• They will do this by cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy.

• Many ppl say this will cause inflation to come back, but I doubt it will be a sustainable thing.

• Here are a few quotes from J Powell:

• “Demand for labor is down sharply"

• New jobs have come "way down"

• "Unemployment should start to go back up & may be hitting it now"

• He is clearly concerned about the labor market.

• But here’s the BIG issue.

• The fed is usually late (yes, Trump might be correct to call him “too late Powell”)

• Cause the fed usually always cuts because “something bad” is happening.

• They are usually reactionary, not pro active.

• So even though we are cutting, it might be too late & time will tell!

• This is all at a time the government remains shut down and we have minimal data to chew on to get a feeler of the economy.

• That’s always why Q3 earnings are SO important.

• We will lean heavy on that to get clues into the economy, earnings, revenue, guide, capex, tariffs, hiring, ect…

• Regardless of what happens, my portfolio is allocated to win either way.

• If the market falls 40%, I will be just fine.

• If the market goes up, I will ride that wave up.

• Now is a great time to look at your portfolio and make sure you are comfortable with everything you have open, especially options/leverage.

• If you can’t handle a 40% drop, you are gambling.

• Please fix that.

• That's all I got for ya’ll today!

• Have a great week!

I’ll TEACH YOU EXACTLY HOW TO SCALE TO MILLIONS WITH STOCKS & OPTIONS

Join the 1,000+ other people just like you that went through this training and completely changed how they look at stocks & options forever.