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- Alpha Report Issue #102
Alpha Report Issue #102
The Current State of The Market



Current read is 29 on the fear greed index vs 53 last week.
Market took a dip on Friday and this fell quite a bit.
The small dip was needed and healthy! (I will cover more below)
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)
I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear
I like to be bearish when extreme greed.
Opportunity is out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (strong momentum but potentially over valued)

Basically showing the amount of companies at ATHs

Notice how the herd buys puts after stocks fall… Typical lol

Overall volatility is right at the 50DMA which indicated selling options will fetch less premiums.

30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.20% Today, vs 6.10% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield falls to 4.05% Today, vs 4.12% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield falls to 3.52% Today, vs 3.57% last Sunday.
Interest rates fell a little but this week, but nothing too major.
As I always say, interest rates are gravity!
Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend!
Here is what we got going on right now.
Let’s Break It Down:
Let’s talk a little about human nature and psychology here, because that is what wipes out most investors.
I realize it’s the un cool thing to talk about, but we are here to make money, not be cool.
The market has been going to Pluto since the April 8th dip and really nothing has phased this market.
Up and to the right.
I have been pounding hard in Discord that this market should be taken VERY carefully because valuations became stretched.
Everyone is a genius on this rally. We all made A LOT of money.
I made over $500,000 in just a few months in my Schwab account (kinda crazy)
But that market move is NOT sustainable.
On Friday, Trump sent out a tweet calling for 100% tariffs on China to go in effect November 1st.
The market immediately dipped and closed out down about 3%.
Was this justified? YEP!
It does not matter the catalyst, the market was due for a dip and it should honestly dip more.
Will it? We will see, but I see this market as about 15% over valued still.
So if we dip that much for whatever reason, it’s 100% justified.
I am allocated to win either way BTW.
So my point is this, the market goes to Pluto the last few months and everyone is a genius with the Ai trade.
We get a 3% dip and X/YouTube is filled with people that are now getting margin called and are becoming “risk management” experts lol.
Human nature never changes.
Notice the put call ratio on the chart above.
Market falls on Friday, ppl buy puts.
Why? "OMG THE MARKET IS CRASHING 3% WE MUST FLOCK TO PUTS"
Also notice the put/call ratio was highest at the bottom of the market in April.
Meaning ppl were buying downside protection (puts) at the exact wrong time.
This is why selling puts when things are on sale works cause you'll fetch a higher premium cause ppl panic & are willing to pay more.
You will also get lower strikes & less assignment value.
This is a good chart to understand just to chart how humans logic.
I realize the ratio only went up a little, but the concept applies.
Moral of the story is this, the market ran up A LOT and we need to give some back to bring the market back to healthy levels.
I see a 15% dip as very healthy.
I am positioned to win either way.
Market up, I get share appreciation.
Market down, I buy on sale.
Either way I win and ratios are always in check.
We will 99.9% chance see a 40% stock market crash in the next 30 years.
Times like right now make that more likely because of elevated valuations.
Keep your emotions, ratios, and expectations in check.
Know what you own and why.
Do your own thinking.
Do NOT just follow someone.
Q3 earnings fire up and we will get lots of catalysts and clues into he state of the economy, companies, tariffs, inflation, valuations, guide, Ai, Cap ex, ect…
All will be broken down in Discord in real time!
I’ll TEACH YOU EXACTLY HOW TO SCALE TO MILLIONS WITH STOCKS & OPTIONS
Join the 1,000+ other people just like you that went through this training and completely changed how they look at stocks & options forever.



