Alpha Report Issue #101

The Current State of The Market

Brandon
October 05, 2025

Current read is 53 on the fear greed index vs 62 last week.
I think this should be closer to 65, so greedy IMO.
Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)
Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)
I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear
I like to be bearish when extreme greed.
So right now, I am neutral ish!
Opportunity is still out there, just gotta find it!

Current Fear/Greed Index

Historical Fear/Greed Index Level.

SP500 decently above 125DMA (strong momentum but potentially over valued)\

Basically showing the amount of companies at ATHs

The lower this ratio = more ppl are buying calls (potential greed and over valuation)

Overall volatility is right at the 50DMA which indicated selling options will fetch less premiums.

30 year fixed mortgage rate falls to 6.10% Today, vs 6.21% last Sunday.
10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.12% Today, vs 4.17% last Sunday.
2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 3.57% Today, vs 3.64% last Sunday.
Interest rates fell a little but this week, but nothing too major.
As I always say, interest rates are gravity!
Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

Market continues to run up “just because”
Q3 earnings start this week but not much really happens till the following week.
This earnings season will be one of the more important ones because there is so much riding on this market hype train.
Think of the market right now as a teeter totter, if the EPS growth remains, the show goes on.
If EPS/guide/Ai cap ex slows down, expect to see a correction (which would be 100% ok and justified.
I see the market as about 15-20% over extended right now.
I am positioning into things that will win either way.
Many people say “how can you make money when the market goes up and down” well it’s very possible and I am positioned accordingly.
I have been covering in Discord in detail and showing my account of exactly how to position and the why behind it.
So whatever you do, know what you are buying and the why behind it.
Do NOT just but something cause the hype is there and the share price just keeps going up.
As inflation continues to fall and rates fall, the market becomes a little “less lofty” cause there is really no other game in town.
Bonds will be out of style cause the yields will be so low that nobody wants to deal with them…
Just look at history to see the relationship between bond yields and the PE ratio of the market.
As yields fall, PE ratios go up.
With the PE already high right now, we kinda need yields to fall to justify the next leg higher.
As for Q3 earnings, I am bullish and think they will be good.
BUT! Good earnings do not mean the market will continue higher.
Just look at Tesla, they reported great delivery numbers but the stock fell.
Why? cause the good numbers were already priced in on the back of the $7,500 EV tax credit ending so there was lots of FOMO to get the car before that.
Classic example of the herd being emotional to get in.
This applies to everything in the investing world too.
So I will end this short newsletter on this, the market is hot, but earnings have been great.
Be positioned to win either way and be careful with leverage right now.
Yes, there is a way to win in upside and downside.
I myself & the ppl in my discord are positioned perfectly to capitalize on whatever the market throws at us.
WE SLEEP GOOD AT NIGHT!