• Current read is 53 on the fear greed index vs 62 last week.

• I think this should be closer to 65, so greedy IMO.

• Market Fearful = Potential Opportunity/Deals. (consider buy calls/sell puts/buy shares)

• Market Greedy = Potential Over Valuation. (consider buy puts/sell calls/sell shares)

• I like to be bullish when there is extreme fear

• I like to be bearish when extreme greed.

• So right now, I am neutral ish!

• Opportunity is still out there, just gotta find it!

• 30 year fixed mortgage rate climbs to 6.21% Today, vs 6.20% last Sunday.

• 10 year treasury bond yield climbs to 4.17% Today, vs 4.13% last Sunday.

• 2 year treasury bond yield climbs to 3.64% Today, vs 3.56% last Sunday.

• Interest rates moves up a tad this week. Nothing too major.

• As I always say, interest rates are gravity!

• As the months go by, rates will likely fall as overall as inflation falls. Especially if Trumps “Too Late Powell” gets fired lol.

• Remember, as interest rates/bond yields DECREASE, stocks become MORE attractive because bond yields go DOWN which makes the risk free bond look LESS attractive.

What’s up everyone!
Hope you’re having a great weekend!
Here is what we got going on right now.

Let’s Break It Down:

Markets spent the week pricing in various “themes”

• Inflation isn’t collapsing (yet) — it’s hanging around above target, but as time goes on, I am in the camp this will trend down. I also think AI is a strong deflationary factor. As inflation continues to fall, interest rates will likely fall too which will help support the market valuations right now (little high)

• August PCE Inflation: Core PCE held at 2.9% YoY. Spending was stronger than expected, up 0.6%. Inflation is sticky, but consumers are still swiping their cards. Part of this “sticky inflation” is likely from tariffs, but that is going to be transitory IMO. Yes, that word as a bad name cause that’s what everyone said about COVID inflation as it ran up to 9%+. But I would honestly be shocked if this happens again this cycle.

• The labor market is showing fatigue — cracks are forming, but there is nothing to freak out about just yet. The unemployment rate remains historically low and consumers continue to spend. The concern with many (including Jerome Powell) is this lack of liquidity in the labor market. What that means is there is not a lot of ppl being hired right now, but there is also not a lot of ppl being laid off. So the balance is working for now, but if there is a spike in layoffs, the unemployment rate could spike FAST.

• Inventories Rising: US factories are building inventory faster than demand, a classic signal of slowing growth. This could also be caused by companies simply holding more inventory in case something happens with tariffs, they will be able to have more supply to weather the storm.

• Shutdown Risk: Congress is playing chicken with funding as always. A shutdown could delay economic releases (like the jobs report), which would throw even more uncertainty into markets. Overall, government shutdowns have usually panned out to be good dip buying opportunities and good times to sell options when volatility is higher.

Takeaway

We’re in a “watch the seams” phase.

• The Fed already cut rates once on Sept 17.

• Markets are pricing in two more cuts this year — but whether we actually get them depends heavily on upcoming data.

• If inflation surprises higher → cuts slow down.

• If jobs roll over → cuts accelerate.

Volatility is here, and it’s not going away.
Which is great for us to capitalize on!

The Week Ahead: September 29 – October 3

What to Watch

• Jobs Report Friday: If payrolls come in hot, expect markets to pull back (Fed might slow down cuts). If weak, markets may rip higher on hopes of more easing. BUT, I do not really agree with how the market reacts to this… I have said many times I would rather have a stronger economy with high interest rates vs a weak economy with low rates.

• Labor Data (JOLTS + ADP): Confirms whether the cracks in hiring are getting worse, will be key to study this.

• ISM Manufacturing/Services: Gauges if the slowdown is broadening.

• Fed Speeches: Every word will be parsed, dovish vs hawkish tone matters but Jerome Powell is the big needle mover from he fed and he is not scheduled to talk this week.

• Shutdown Danger: If government funding stalls, data releases could be delayed. That means markets would be flying blind.

How to Capitalize

Here’s where my head’s at right now:

1. Lock in Yields While You Can

   • Treasuries, CDs, and high-grade corporates are still paying attractive yields.

   • If the Fed keeps cutting, today’s rates will look generous in hindsight.

   • Bonds give you cash flow, potential price appreciation, and a hedge.

   • I have a chunk of my portfolio in $BLV ( ▲ 0.28% ) + $VCLT ( ▲ 0.29% )  

   • Remember, if yields fall for whatever reason (inflation falls, economy takes a dump, ect…) the PRICE of bonds will go up. So its a hedge and potential way to make a little money.

2. Don’t Chase Overheated Stocks

   • The S&P is still priced for perfection, led by big tech.

   • Earnings risk + rising unemployment = less margin for error.

   • Chasing here is dangerous IMO, better to sit patient and strike when fear comes back. There is still opportunities out there, but they are fewer and far between. Remember to always know what you own!

3. Watch Housing & Refinance Opportunities

   • Mortgage rates are back in the low 6% range — lowest in nearly a year.

   • Refinancing apps surged 50% in a week.

   • If you locked in at 7%+, this could free up real cash flow. Just don’t get caught paying fees over and over if rates keep drifting lower, consider waiting a little longer.

4. Stay Nimble Into Friday

   • The jobs report will set the tone for October.

   • Expect volatility.

5. Have Dry Powder Ready

   • Best opportunities come when others panic.

   • Volatility creates entry points into great companies.

   • Patience > FOMO.

Bottom Line

The Fed is easing, but the economy is fragile.

• Growth is slowing.

• Unemployment is drifting higher.

• Inflation progress is stuck.

• Stocks are expensive.

• But earnings & revenue growth still remain super strong.

Short-term = bumpy.
Long-term = bullish.

Know what you own & be ready to strike when opportunity comes.

As I always say: Opportunity is here and more is coming. When I find deals, I strike, and I strike hard.

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